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The ongoing conflict in Iran is poised to create significant disruptions in global food production, potentially jeopardising up to 10 billion meals each week, as warned by Svein Tore Holsether, the CEO of Yara, one of the world’s leading fertiliser manufacturers. The blockade of the vital Strait of Hormuz has led to critical shortages in the supply of fertilisers and their essential components, disproportionately affecting the most impoverished nations.
Fertiliser Shortages: A Global Crisis
Holsether highlighted the urgent implications of the current geopolitical tensions during an interview with the BBC. He indicated that the hostilities in the Gulf region have severely hampered shipping routes, leading to an alarming shortfall in nitrogen fertiliser production. “We are currently missing up to half a million tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser globally due to the ongoing situation,” he stated, underscoring the dire consequences for food production.
Without adequate nitrogen fertiliser, crop yields could plummet by as much as 50% in the first season, significantly affecting food availability. The ramifications of this shortage will be felt most acutely in regions that are already facing agricultural challenges, such as parts of sub-Saharan Africa, where under-fertilisation has long been an issue.
The Economic Ripple Effect
As the planting season unfolds, with the UK experiencing peak planting and Asian farmers commencing their cycles, the long-term repercussions of these fertiliser shortages may not manifest until much later in the year. Analysts predict that harvests expected to be plentiful could turn out to be meager, with Professor Paul Teng from Singapore cautioning that while some nations may have sufficient fertiliser for immediate needs, prolonged conflict could jeopardise future crops, particularly staple foods like rice.
Farmers globally are grappling with a multitude of challenges. Rising costs of energy, diesel for machinery, and other essential inputs are squeezing their profitability. Holsether remarked, “Farmers are faced with increased operational costs, yet the prices they receive for their produce have not risen correspondingly.” This disparity places added strain on agricultural producers, compounding the risks to food security.
A Looming Bidding War
The United Nations has reported that approximately one-third of the world’s fertilisers transit through the Strait of Hormuz, making its stability crucial for global food supply chains. The price of fertiliser has surged by 80% since the onset of the conflict involving the US and Israel. Holsether cautioned that should the crisis persist, a competitive bidding war for food could emerge between wealthier and poorer nations, with dire consequences for those least able to afford it.
“Europe must consider the implications of such a bidding war,” he emphasised. “If wealthier nations secure food supplies at the expense of developing countries, the most vulnerable populations will bear the brunt of this crisis, facing heightened food scarcity and increased hunger.”
In the UK, the Food and Drink Federation has projected that food inflation may reach 10% by December, while the Bank of England indicated a potential rise in food price inflation to 4.6% in September, with expectations of further increases later in the year. The UN World Food Programme estimates that the fallout from the conflict could thrust an additional 45 million people into acute hunger by 2026, with the Asia-Pacific region anticipated to experience a 24% rise in food insecurity—the largest increase of any global region.
Why it Matters
The implications of the ongoing conflict in Iran extend far beyond regional borders, threatening to exacerbate global food insecurity at an unprecedented scale. As nations grapple with rising food prices and dwindling supplies, the most vulnerable populations are poised to suffer the gravest consequences. A concerted, diplomatic response is essential to mitigate the fallout and ensure that food remains accessible for all, especially in developing regions where the stakes are highest. The unfolding situation is a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global food systems and the urgent need for cooperative efforts to safeguard food security worldwide.