The ongoing conflict in Iran is posing a significant threat to global food security, with the potential to jeopardise up to 10 billion meals weekly, according to Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara, one of the world’s leading fertiliser producers. As hostilities disrupt shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, the ramifications are expected to disproportionately affect the world’s most impoverished regions, highlighting the urgent need for a coordinated international response.
Fertiliser Shortages and Their Global Impact
Holsether articulated his concerns during an interview with the BBC, where he highlighted the critical role that fertiliser plays in maintaining crop yields. He noted that the ongoing crisis has resulted in a staggering reduction of up to half a million tonnes of nitrogen fertiliser not being produced globally. “What does that mean for food production? I would get to up to 10 billion meals that will not be produced every week as a result of the lack of fertilisers,” he stated.
The CEO further explained that failure to apply nitrogen fertiliser could reduce crop yields by as much as 50% in the initial growing season for certain crops. The disruption is particularly acute in regions already grappling with under-fertilisation, such as sub-Saharan Africa, where significant declines in agricultural output could occur.
Consequences for Farmers Worldwide
Planting cycles vary significantly across the globe. While farmers in the UK are currently in their peak planting season, those in Asia are only just commencing their agricultural activities. However, analysts have warned that the repercussions of fertiliser shortages may not manifest in food prices until later this year, when harvests—expected to be smaller due to planting delays—are brought to market.
Professor Paul Teng, a noted expert in food security based in Singapore, cautioned that while some nations may have sufficient fertiliser for immediate needs, prolonged disruption could severely impact vital crops like rice in the months to come. Farmers worldwide are facing mounting pressures, with costs for energy and other agricultural inputs on the rise. “They’re faced with higher energy costs, diesel for a tractor is increasing, other inputs for the farmers are increasing, fertiliser cost is increasing, but yet the crop prices haven’t increased to the same extent yet,” Holsether remarked.
The Risk of a Bidding War for Food
The United Nations has reported that nearly one-third of the world’s fertilisers—including essential compounds like urea, potash, ammonia, and phosphates—typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the conflict began, fertiliser prices have surged by 80%. Holsether warned that if the crisis persists, a bidding war for food could ensue, whereby wealthier nations outbid poorer ones for essential supplies. “If there’s a bidding war on food and one that Europe is robust enough to handle, what we need to keep in mind in Europe is, OK, in that situation, who are we buying the food away from?” he posed, underscoring that it is the most vulnerable populations in developing nations that would bear the brunt of such competition.
In the UK, food inflation is projected to reach 10% by December, as indicated by the Food and Drink Federation. The Bank of England has also suggested that food price inflation could escalate to 4.6% in September, with further increases anticipated later in the year. Additionally, the UN World Food Programme estimates that the fallout from the Middle East conflict could thrust an additional 45 million people into acute hunger by 2026. In the Asia-Pacific region, food insecurity is expected to rise by 24%, marking the largest relative increase of any global area.
Why it Matters
The current situation in Iran serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global food systems and the fragility of agricultural supply chains. As conflicts disrupt essential resources, the ramifications extend far beyond national borders, threatening the food security of millions worldwide. The potential for a bidding war for food not only exacerbates existing inequalities but also raises urgent questions about the moral obligations of wealthier nations to support those most affected by these crises. With millions at risk of hunger, it is imperative for the international community to come together to address these challenges and strive for sustainable solutions that ensure food security for all.