The ongoing conflict in Iran poses a significant risk to global food security, jeopardising the production of up to 10 billion meals each week, according to Svein Tore Holsether, the chief executive of Yara, one of the world’s leading fertiliser manufacturers. As hostilities in the Gulf hinder shipping routes through the vital Strait of Hormuz, the repercussions are expected to be most severe for the world’s poorest nations, which are already grappling with food insecurity.
Fertiliser Shortages and Crop Yields
Holsether emphasised the critical role of fertilisers in agricultural productivity, noting that the disruption of supplies has resulted in a staggering reduction of nitrogen fertiliser production by up to half a million tons. This shortfall is already beginning to impact food production globally. He explained that the absence of nitrogen fertiliser could lead to a drop in crop yields by as much as 50% for certain crops during the first planting season.
Parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to feel the effects most acutely, as these regions are already grappling with issues of under-fertilisation. “Significant drops” in crop yields are a real possibility in sub-Saharan Africa, where the reliance on fertilisers is crucial for sustaining agricultural output.
Impending Food Price Bidding Wars
The ramifications of the conflict extend beyond immediate production issues. Holsether warned that a bidding war for food could emerge between wealthier and poorer nations, particularly if the situation in Iran persists. He expressed concern that European nations, while potentially able to absorb price increases, must remain mindful of the consequences for vulnerable populations in developing countries. “If there’s a bidding war on food, we must consider who we are effectively buying the food away from,” he stated, highlighting the ethical implications of such actions.
The United Nations indicates that approximately one-third of the world’s fertiliser, including essential compounds like urea and potash, typically transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the onset of the conflict, fertiliser prices have soared by 80%, exacerbating the already pressing challenges faced by farmers worldwide, who are struggling with rising costs for energy and other inputs.
Food Inflation and Future Projections
In the UK, while immediate food shortages are deemed unlikely, the rising costs associated with food production are projected to affect household bills in the coming months. The Food and Drink Federation has already forecasted that food inflation could hit 10% by December, while the Bank of England has indicated that food price inflation might reach 4.6% by September, with further increases anticipated later in the year.
The UN World Food Programme has warned that the ongoing crisis in the Middle East could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger by 2026. Regions such as Asia and the Pacific are expected to experience a 24% rise in food insecurity, marking the largest relative increase of any global region.
Why it Matters
The current situation underscores a critical intersection between geopolitical conflict and global food security. With millions already facing hunger, the potential for increased food prices and scarcity highlights the urgent need for international cooperation and sustainable agricultural practices. As the conflict unfolds, the implications will reverberate far beyond the immediate regions affected, posing a threat to food systems worldwide and prompting a moral imperative to protect those most vulnerable.