Tens of millions of people worldwide are at risk of falling into a severe hunger crisis as the ripple effects of the Iran conflict continue to disrupt essential supply chains. Despite a recent ceasefire between the US and Iran, aid organisations warn that the ramifications of the war are already being felt in some of the world’s most vulnerable regions, which are grappling with significant cuts to international assistance.
The Fallout from Conflict
The fragile ceasefire has temporarily halted military operations in Iran and allowed the reopening of critical shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. While this may provide a brief respite for global energy markets, the long-term consequences of disrupted agricultural production and food supply are becoming increasingly dire. Aid agencies are sounding alarms over escalating hunger levels in already precarious situations across northern Nigeria, Gaza, Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia.
In northern Nigeria, the hunger crisis has reached alarming proportions, with conditions deteriorating more rapidly than anticipated. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, a disturbing increase in severe malnutrition cases among children has been reported, reflecting the deepening food insecurity in the region. Nearly half of Yemen’s population is also facing acute food shortages, highlighting the widespread impact of the ongoing conflict.
Selena Victor, Senior Director of Policy for Mercy Corps, emphasised the long-lasting effects of the war: “Despite a ceasefire between Iran and the US, the damage has been done. The crops have already been planted… This will play out into the harvest season at the end of this year, and because that will also deplete the land, this will also play out into 2027. It is a long tail shock.”
Rising Numbers of Food Insecure
In March, the United Nations cautioned that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could potentially leave an additional 45 million people facing acute hunger, pushing the total number of those in crisis to an unprecedented 363 million—an all-time high this century. The worst effects are anticipated to hit East and Southern Africa, where an estimated 17.7 million additional individuals could face hunger.
Jean-Martin Bauer, Director of Food Security and Nutrition Analysis at the World Food Programme, warned that the world is far from overcoming this crisis. “With conflict, climate shocks, and a funding shortfall hitting at the same time, the worst is not behind us,” he stated. He underscored the urgent need for early intervention, yet lamented the lack of necessary funding to address the escalating needs.
A recent report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) highlighted the broader implications of rising energy costs, noting that increased prices for fuel would cascade through the agricultural supply chain, leading to more expensive fertilisers, transport, and ultimately, food. This situation could push even more vulnerable populations further into hunger.
Vulnerable Populations at Risk
Countries heavily reliant on food imports and fuel, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are particularly at risk as climate change exacerbates existing challenges. A recent analysis indicated that as many as 200 million additional individuals could be affected by the ongoing crisis. Dr Kirrily de Polnay, a senior specialist in child health and nutrition with Médecins Sans Frontières, warned that these food shortages extend beyond nutrition; they represent an impending health crisis for children. Malnutrition significantly weakens children’s immune systems, making them more susceptible to otherwise treatable diseases.
“If there was an earthquake or a volcano right now, we would see it, but that would be much less devastating than 18 months of failed crops,” Victor added, driving home the urgency of the situation.
Humanitarian Aid in Decline
The international humanitarian system is struggling to cope with the ramifications of drastic cuts to aid from major donor nations, notably the US. This reduction has forced UN agencies and NGOs to scale back essential food assistance, halt nutrition programmes, and diminish support for some of the world’s most vulnerable communities.
As the demand for aid escalates, these funding shortfalls have left organisations ill-equipped to respond effectively. “We needed to act in the early days of the crisis,” said Victor. “And people did, but they’re working with sticking plasters.” The impact of these cuts has set back progress in tackling malnutrition by nearly a decade, with many children who previously would have received timely treatment now being turned away until their conditions become critical.
In Afghanistan, Médecins Sans Frontières reported alarming levels of severe malnutrition among children, with admissions in southern hospitals exceeding numbers from previous years despite the seasonal peak for malnutrition still being weeks away. Dr de Polnay expressed frustration at the stagnation in progress: “After 15 years of doing this, it’s still the same kid I’m seeing. It’s still the same situation.”
Why it Matters
The looming hunger crisis resulting from the Iran war and subsequent aid cuts represents not just a humanitarian emergency but a profound threat to global stability. With millions facing malnutrition and increased vulnerability to disease, the consequences of inaction will extend far beyond immediate hunger. This crisis serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global conflicts, climate change, and food security, compelling the international community to respond with urgency and solidarity. The time to act is now, as failure to do so could have devastating repercussions for generations to come.
