In a bold assertion, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May has expressed optimism that her party can secure a surprising victory in the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election, primarily by leveraging discontent over the Liberal government’s environmental policies. The by-election is set for August 31, and the Greens are fielding Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist with a doctoral degree from UCLA and a former adviser to the City of North Vancouver.
A Challenging Landscape for the Greens
Historically, the Green Party has struggled to make significant inroads in North Vancouver-Capilano. Their best performances have resulted in third-place finishes in both the 2008 and 2015 elections, while in 2019, they garnered only 12 per cent of the vote, leading to a fourth-place outcome. Despite this, May believes that recent developments could tilt the odds in their favour.
“There’s a number of things that pivot in our favour, including the number of projects that are getting rammed through that, geographically, they butt right up against the shores of North Vancouver,” May stated. She specifically highlighted the federal government’s approval of dredging in Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet, which aims to accommodate larger oil tankers linked to the Trans Mountain pipeline.
Prime Minister Mark Carney first proposed the dredging project in 2025, sparking significant environmental concerns from advocacy groups regarding its potential impact on local wildlife. This controversy, alongside other contentious projects, may energise Green Party supporters who are keen on environmental preservation.
The Political Contenders
The recent announcement of the by-election follows the departure of former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who has been appointed as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. The Liberal Party has selected Braeden Caley, Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, to contest the seat. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have opted to run lawyer Stephen Curran, who secured second place in the previous election with approximately a third of the vote.
May acknowledges the uphill battle her party faces but maintains that a win is possible, particularly due to the calibre of their candidate. “It’s hardly in the bag that Greens are going to win,” she cautioned. “But Greens could win in North Vancouver-Capilano, and part of it is the strength of our candidate. And that’s what voters are doing in a by-election.”
She further emphasised the nature of by-elections as an opportunity for voters to trial an MP with minimal risk: “If you don’t like the job Shelly Luce has been doing for you as your MP, well, you’ve got at most a three-year, risk-free, money-back guarantee.”
Polling Perspectives
Not everyone shares May’s enthusiasm. Poll analyst Éric Grenier of The Writ has expressed skepticism about the Green Party’s chances of capturing the North Vancouver-Capilano seat. “To win the seat? No,” he stated. “I think there’s a chance that the party could have a decent enough result. But in the current context, it would be quite a surprise for the Greens to be able to pull off that.”
Earlier this month, the Greens did manage to surprise many by securing a victory in a provincial by-election in Prince Edward Island, where candidate Tayte Willows defeated Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell. Despite this, Grenier pointed out that federally, the Greens currently hold only about five per cent support in British Columbia, which complicates their prospects in a riding of this magnitude.
“There’s a big difference between winning a district that has a few thousand voters versus winning a riding in B.C. that has 100,000 voters,” he noted. “The Greens have some ridings where they have a shot at winning. But I really don’t think that this one is one.”
Leadership Race Adds Complexity
As the Green Party gears up for the by-election, it is simultaneously navigating a leadership race, with nominations having closed on July 17. The full list of candidates is expected to be unveiled shortly, adding another layer of complexity to the party’s campaign efforts.
Why it Matters
The North Vancouver-Capilano by-election serves as a critical barometer for the Green Party’s resilience and strategic positioning within the Canadian political landscape. With the environment taking centre stage in public discourse, the outcome of this election could have ramifications beyond the local level, influencing national conversations about climate policy and the future of the Green Party in Canada. If the Greens manage to galvanise support amidst widespread dissatisfaction with Liberal environmental rollbacks, it may signal a shift in voter priorities and party dynamics ahead of the next general election.
