The Green Party is setting its sights on a surprising opportunity in the North Vancouver-Capilano riding, banking on discontent with Liberal climate policies to gain traction ahead of the upcoming by-election on August 31. Party leader Elizabeth May believes that the current political climate, particularly the government’s recent approvals of contentious environmental projects, could pave the way for the Greens to secure a victory in a region where they have historically struggled.
A New Candidate in the Race
The Greens have selected Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist with a doctorate from UCLA and a former adviser to the City of North Vancouver, as their candidate for the by-election. Despite the party’s past performances—including third-place finishes in 2008 and 2015 and a mere 12 per cent of the vote in 2019—May expresses optimism that Luce’s credentials and the party’s platform could resonate with voters frustrated by the Liberal government’s actions.
“There’s a number of things that pivot in our favour, including the number of projects that are getting rammed through that, geographically, they butt right up against the shores of North Vancouver,” May stated. She highlighted Ottawa’s recent approval for dredging Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet, aimed at accommodating larger oil tankers, as a key issue that may sway public opinion.
The Political Landscape
The political landscape is shifting, especially after the recent announcement by Prime Minister Mark Carney to call three by-elections following the resignation of Jonathan Wilkinson, the former natural resources minister, who has taken up a new role as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. The Liberals have nominated Braeden Caley, previously Carney’s deputy chief of staff, while the Conservatives are fielding lawyer Stephen Curran, who narrowly lost to Wilkinson last election.
May acknowledges the uphill battle but insists that the unique circumstances—such as the temporary nature of a by-election MP—might encourage voters to take a chance on the Greens. “It’s hardly in the bag that Greens are going to win,” she admitted, “But it’s a risk-free tryout of this MP at most for the next three years.”
Skepticism from Analysts
Despite May’s confidence, some political analysts remain sceptical about the Greens’ chances. Éric Grenier, a polling expert from The Writ, believes that while the Greens may achieve a respectable result, a win is unlikely. “To win the seat? No,” Grenier asserted, although he did acknowledge that the party’s recent success in a provincial by-election in P.E.I. demonstrated their potential to surprise.
Currently, the Greens are polling at around five per cent support in British Columbia, a stark contrast to the larger electorate of North Vancouver-Capilano, which encompasses over 100,000 voters. Grenier pointed out, “There’s a big difference between winning a district that has a few thousand voters versus winning a riding in B.C. that has 100,000 voters.” He conceded that while some ridings may be within reach for the Greens, North Vancouver-Capilano is likely not one of them.
The Greens’ Broader Context
As the Green Party directs its efforts toward the by-election, it finds itself navigating a concurrent leadership race. With nominations closing on July 17, the announcement of candidates is expected imminently. This dual focus on a leadership transition and an election campaign adds an additional layer of complexity to the party’s strategy as it seeks to redefine its position within a competitive political landscape.
Why it Matters
The North Vancouver-Capilano by-election is not merely a local contest but a significant event that could signal the broader health of the Green Party in Canada. If the party manages to leverage public discontent with Liberal environmental policies effectively, it may not only secure its first parliamentary seat in this region but also reinvigorate its national profile. In a political climate increasingly dominated by climate change discussions, the outcome here could reshape perceptions of the Greens as a viable alternative in federal politics.