In a bold bid for electoral success, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May has expressed optimism about the party’s chances in the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election, scheduled for August 31. May believes that the Greens can leverage recent Liberal rollbacks on climate initiatives to capture voter support. The party has nominated Shelley Luce, a seasoned environmental scientist and former adviser to the City of North Vancouver, to contest the seat left vacant by Jonathan Wilkinson’s appointment as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union.
The Candidate and the Context
Historically, the Green Party has struggled to make significant headway in North Vancouver-Capilano. Their best performances to date include third-place finishes in the elections of 2008 and 2015, while their highest vote share—12 per cent—resulted only in a fourth-place standing in 2019. Nevertheless, May remains hopeful about the party’s prospects, citing a series of controversial infrastructure projects that could galvanise local opposition.
May pointed specifically to the recent approval by Ottawa for the dredging of Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet to accommodate larger oil tankers associated with the Trans Mountain pipeline. This initiative, she argues, raises substantial environmental concerns that align with the Green Party’s core platform and could sway public opinion in their favour.
The Political Landscape
Mark Carney, the Prime Minister, has recently called three by-elections, including North Vancouver-Capilano. The Liberal Party has selected Braeden Caley, formerly Carney’s deputy chief of staff, to represent them in the race. The Conservatives have fielded lawyer Stephen Curran, who finished second to Wilkinson in the last election, garnering approximately a third of the votes.
While May acknowledges the uphill battle ahead, she is keen to highlight the unique opportunity presented by a by-election. “It’s hardly in the bag that Greens are going to win,” she admitted. “But Greens could win in North Vancouver-Capilano, and part of it is the strength of our candidate.” She framed the by-election as a “risk-free tryout” for voters, suggesting that they could assess Luce’s performance without long-term commitment.
Skepticism from Polling Experts
Despite May’s confident assertions, some analysts caution against overestimating the Green Party’s chances. Polling expert Éric Grenier of The Writ remarked, “To win the seat? No. I think there’s a chance that the party could have a decent enough result, but it would be quite a surprise for the Greens to be able to pull that off.” While acknowledging that the Greens might perform well in the region based on past elections, he noted that federal support for the party in British Columbia currently hovers around five per cent.
Grenier underscored the stark contrast between winning a small district with a few thousand voters and a larger riding like North Vancouver-Capilano, which boasts around 100,000 eligible voters. “The Greens have some ridings where they have a shot at winning, but I really don’t think that this one is one,” he concluded.
Leadership Race in Parallel
As the Green Party gears up for the by-election, it is also navigating its own leadership race, which has unfolded alongside the electoral preparations. Nominations for the leadership closed on July 17, and the party is set to unveil the full list of candidates soon. This dual focus on leadership and electoral prospects adds a layer of complexity to the party’s strategy in the coming weeks.
Why it Matters
The North Vancouver-Capilano by-election serves as a critical test for the Green Party amid shifting political tides in Canada. With environmental policy at the forefront of public discourse, May’s campaign could either signal a resurgence for the Greens or further entrench their position as a minor player in the federal landscape. The outcome will not only impact local representation but could also influence the national conversation on climate change and sustainable development, making this election a pivotal moment for the party and its supporters.
