In a bold move to capitalise on recent environmental controversies, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May has expressed optimism about the party’s chances in the upcoming North Vancouver-Capilano by-election, scheduled for August 31. May believes that the Liberal government’s rollback of climate policies may give the Greens an unexpected edge in this traditionally tough riding.
Green Candidate and Environmental Concerns
The Greens have selected Shelley Luce, a seasoned environmental scientist with a doctorate from UCLA and a former adviser to the City of North Vancouver, to contest the seat. Historically, the party has struggled in this riding, with its best performances being third-place finishes in both 2008 and 2015. In 2019, they achieved only 12 per cent of the vote, landing them fourth. Nevertheless, May contends that recent developments could shift the tide in their favour.
“There are numerous factors that could pivot in our favour, particularly the multitude of projects being expedited that are in close proximity to the shores of North Vancouver,” May remarked. She highlighted the federal government’s approval of dredging in Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet to accommodate larger oil tankers—a decision that has sparked significant concern among environmental groups regarding its impact on local wildlife.
Political Landscape and Opponents
The by-election was triggered by the departure of former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who recently took up the role of Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. In his stead, the Liberals have chosen Braeden Caley, a former deputy chief of staff to Wilkinson, to represent them. The Conservative Party is once again backing lawyer Stephen Curran, who came in second during last year’s election, securing a third of the votes.
May remains guarded but hopeful, acknowledging, “It’s hardly a given that the Greens will win. But we could pull off a victory in North Vancouver-Capilano, primarily due to the strength of our candidate.” She emphasised that by-elections present voters with a “risk-free tryout” of a new MP, allowing them to assess Luce’s performance with the option of a general election looming in the future.
Polling Perspectives
Scepticism, however, surrounds the Greens’ prospects. Poll analyst Éric Grenier, from The Writ, suggested that May’s optimism may be unwarranted. “To win the seat? No,” he asserted firmly. He acknowledged that while the Greens may perform respectably, their chances of winning in the current political climate appear slim.
Despite a recent victory in a provincial by-election where Greens candidate Tayte Willows triumphed over P.E.I. Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell, Grenier cautioned against drawing parallels to the federal landscape. “Federally, the Greens are only pulling about five per cent support in B.C.,” he noted. “There’s a significant difference between winning a district with a few thousand voters and one with 100,000.”
Leadership Race in the Background
As the Green Party narrows its focus on the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election, it is also navigating a leadership race, with nominations closing on July 17. The full list of candidates for the party leadership is expected to be revealed shortly, adding another layer of complexity to their campaign efforts.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election could serve as a critical barometer for the Green Party’s viability in a federal landscape increasingly dominated by climate-related issues. If the Greens manage to upset expectations, it would not only boost their morale but could also signal a shift in voter sentiment towards environmental policies. Conversely, a lacklustre performance may reinforce the challenges they face in garnering broader support within British Columbia and beyond. The stakes are high, and the political implications extend far beyond the confines of this single riding.