The Green Party is gearing up for a potential upset in the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election, scheduled for August 31, as leader Elizabeth May believes that recent rollbacks in climate policy by the Liberal government could sway voters. With environmental scientist Shelley Luce as their candidate, the Greens are looking to capitalise on local discontent over federal decisions that impact the region’s ecological landscape.
Green Candidate’s Credentials
Shelley Luce, who holds a doctorate from UCLA and has previously served as an adviser to the City of North Vancouver, is leading the charge for the Greens. May expressed confidence in Luce’s ability to resonate with constituents, particularly given the party’s focus on environmental issues and the implications of recent Liberal policies. Historically, the Greens have struggled in this riding, finishing third in both 2008 and 2015 and only managing a fourth-place showing with 12% of the vote in 2019. However, May is optimistic that the political climate has shifted enough to allow for a competitive run this time around.
Liberal Policies Under Scrutiny
The Green Party’s strategy hinges on highlighting the Liberal government’s environmental missteps. May pointed to the recent approval of the dredging of Burrard Inlet, a project that would enable larger oil tankers to access the Trans Mountain pipeline, as a significant point of contention. She argued that such projects threaten local wildlife and the delicate coastal ecosystem that many North Vancouver residents cherish.
“The number of projects being pushed through here is alarming,” May stated. “These developments are happening right next to where people live, and it’s creating a real sense of urgency among voters.”
The Political Landscape
The recent vacancy in North Vancouver-Capilano arose following the appointment of former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. The Liberals have put forward Braeden Caley, a former deputy chief of staff to Prime Minister Mark Carney, to contest the seat. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have opted to run lawyer Stephen Curran, who narrowly lost to Wilkinson in the previous federal election, capturing a third of the votes.
While May remains hopeful, analysts caution that the path to victory for the Greens is fraught with challenges. Polling expert Éric Grenier of The Writ expressed scepticism regarding the party’s chances, suggesting that while they might garner respectable numbers, winning the seat outright would be a tall order. “In the current context, it would be quite a surprise for the Greens to be able to pull this off,” Grenier remarked.
A By-Election as a Testing Ground
May emphasised the importance of by-elections as a low-risk opportunity for voters to try out new candidates. “This is a chance for constituents to evaluate Shelley Luce without the pressure of a general election looming. If they don’t like her performance after three years, they can always vote differently next time,” she noted. This sentiment could resonate with voters seeking change in a riding that has largely been dominated by Liberal and Conservative candidates.
Despite the challenges, the Greens recently surprised observers in provincial politics, where candidate Tayte Willows managed to defeat P.E.I. Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell in a by-election. This has led some to speculate about the party’s potential to replicate that success on the federal stage, although Grenier remains cautious about the Greens’ current support levels in British Columbia, which he estimates at about five per cent.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election could serve as a barometer for the political landscape in British Columbia and beyond. Should the Green Party manage to make significant inroads, it would not only bolster their national standing but also signal a growing dissatisfaction with the major parties’ climate policies. In an era where environmental issues are at the forefront of public discourse, the results here could influence how parties approach climate agendas in future elections, potentially reshaping the political dialogue as Canada moves towards its next general election.
