The Green Party is positioning itself for a potentially significant upset in the North Vancouver-Capilano by-election scheduled for August 31. Party leader Elizabeth May believes that recent rollbacks in climate policy by the Liberal government could galvanise support for the Greens, particularly with the party’s candidate, Shelley Luce, an accomplished environmental scientist and former adviser to the City of North Vancouver.
A Challenging Landscape
Historically, the Green Party has struggled in this riding, securing its best results with third-place finishes in both 2008 and 2015. In the 2019 election, the party reached its peak share of the vote at 12 per cent, resulting in a disappointing fourth-place outcome. Despite this, May remains optimistic about the party’s chances, attributing this to the ongoing environmental discourse and the local implications of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent infrastructure push.
“There are several factors that could work in our favour, notably the array of projects being fast-tracked that directly affect the shores of North Vancouver,” May noted, referencing Ottawa’s recent approval of significant dredging activities in Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet. This project will facilitate larger oil tankers servicing the Trans Mountain pipeline, a move that has alarmed environmental advocates concerned about its impact on local ecosystems.
Candidates and Competition
The by-election was triggered by the departure of former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who left his North Vancouver-Capilano seat to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. The Liberal Party has selected Braeden Caley, Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, as its candidate. The Conservatives have opted to field lawyer Stephen Curran once more, who previously came in second during last year’s election, capturing a third of the vote.
May acknowledges the uphill battle ahead but believes that Luce’s credentials and the nature of by-elections, which often serve as a low-stakes opportunity for voters to experiment with new representation, could play to the Greens’ advantage. “It’s a risk-free trial of this MP for the next three years. If voters are dissatisfied with Shelley Luce, they can reassess in the general election,” she explained.
Polling Perspectives
However, experts caution against excessive optimism for the Greens. Éric Grenier, a polling analyst with The Writ, expressed scepticism about the party’s chances in this particular riding. “To win the seat? No,” he stated bluntly. While acknowledging that the Greens could achieve a respectable result, Grenier highlighted the stark contrast between competing in smaller districts versus a larger riding like North Vancouver-Capilano, which encompasses around 100,000 voters.
His analysis suggests that while the Greens might have some favourable districts elsewhere, North Vancouver-Capilano is not one of them, especially given that the party’s support in British Columbia currently hovers around five per cent. “The dynamics are different when you scale up the voter base,” he noted.
A Leadership Race in Parallel
As the Greens set their sights on the upcoming by-election, they are simultaneously navigating a leadership contest, with nominations having closed on July 17. The full list of candidates is expected to be revealed shortly, adding another layer of complexity to the party’s strategy as they seek to build momentum.
Why it Matters
The North Vancouver-Capilano by-election is not just a local contest; it represents a critical test for the Green Party’s national relevance amid shifting political tides. With environmental issues at the forefront of public discourse, the outcome could signal whether the Greens can leverage discontent with the current government’s climate policies into tangible electoral gains. As parties gear up for this crucial race, the implications extend far beyond the riding, potentially reshaping the landscape of Canadian politics in the lead-up to the next general election.