In a strategic bid to capitalise on environmental discontent, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is optimistic about the party’s prospects in the upcoming by-election for the North Vancouver-Capilano riding, set for August 31. With climate issues at the forefront of public discussion and the Liberal government facing criticism for its recent policy rollbacks, May believes the Greens could potentially secure a surprising victory.
A New Face in the Race
The Greens are fielding Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist with a doctorate from UCLA and a former adviser to the City of North Vancouver, as their candidate. While the party has historically struggled in this riding—achieving only third-place finishes in both 2008 and 2015, and a meagre 12 per cent of the vote in 2019—May asserts that the current political climate presents an opportunity for a shift.
May highlighted the significance of recent government approvals for large-scale projects, such as the dredging of Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet to accommodate larger oil tankers linked to the controversial Trans Mountain pipeline. “There’s a number of things that pivot in our favour, including the number of projects that are getting rammed through that geographically butt right up against the shores of North Vancouver,” she remarked, emphasising the tension between local environmental concerns and federal energy policy.
The Political Landscape
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who has taken on a new role as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. In his absence, the Liberals have selected Braeden Caley, Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, while the Conservatives are once again backing lawyer Stephen Curran, who came second to Wilkinson in the previous election, garnering a third of the votes.
May, while acknowledging that a win is not guaranteed, expressed confidence in Luce’s abilities and the unique opportunity presented by a by-election. “It’s hardly in the bag that Greens are going to win… but Greens could win in North Vancouver-Capilano,” she said, framing the by-election as a “risk-free trial” for voters.
Polling Perspectives
However, not all analysts share May’s enthusiasm. Poll expert Éric Grenier from The Writ warned that while the Greens may achieve a respectable showing, the odds of winning the seat remain slim. “To win the seat? No,” he stated, highlighting the disparity in voter dynamics between smaller districts and larger ridings like North Vancouver-Capilano, which has around 100,000 voters.
Grenier noted that despite recent successes in provincial by-elections, such as Tayte Willows’ unexpected victory against P.E.I. Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell, the Greens’ federal support in British Columbia currently hovers around five per cent. “There’s a big difference between winning a district that has a few thousand voters versus winning a riding in B.C. that has 100,000 voters,” he explained, suggesting that while the Greens have pockets of potential support, this riding may not be one of them.
The Greens’ Broader Context
As the Green Party intensifies its focus on the upcoming by-election, it simultaneously finds itself in the midst of a leadership race, with nominations closing on July 17. The outcome of this leadership contest could further shape the party’s strategy and appeal moving forward, as they seek to regain momentum in federal politics.
Why it Matters
The North Vancouver-Capilano by-election represents more than just a local contest; it is a litmus test for the Green Party’s viability in a changing political landscape marked by environmental urgency. With climate issues increasingly resonating with voters, the Greens’ performance could signal a resurgence or further decline of their influence in Canadian politics. As the electorate grapples with the implications of government policies, this by-election could redefine party dynamics and set the stage for future electoral battles.