A new megapoll commissioned by the Messina Group shows that nearly half of the British public wants the United Kingdom to re‑join the European Union, a finding that could translate into a significant boost for Labour at the next election. The survey of 11,461 respondents, weighted by the 2016 referendum result and conducted between 12 and 24 September 2026, reveals that 49 % support full re‑entry while 28.5 % oppose it. Labour leader Andy Burnham, who recently called for a review of the UK’s future relationship with Europe, says the data validates his push for a clearer stance on the issue.
Poll reveals strong support for EU re‑join
The TMG research tested seven possible relationships with the EU. Besides outright re‑entry, the second most popular option was to retain the current arrangement but cut as many trade barriers as possible, backed by 48.2 % of participants. A customs union attracted 47.1 % support, while membership of the single market and associate status were almost level at 45.1 % and 45.5 % respectively. Only 27.9 % favoured moving the UK further away from the bloc, with 41.2 % against that idea.
When asked about timing, 25.9 % of voters said they would like the UK to re‑join immediately, 22.9 % preferred a three‑year horizon and 8.4 % thought a decade‑long timetable acceptable. Conversely, 23 % stated they did not want any closer relationship with the EU at all.
Labour’s potential electoral boost
The pollsters also modelled how each pro‑EU scenario might affect Labour’s vote share in a general election. All options that promised tighter ties with Europe were projected to increase Labour’s support by between 4.3 and 7.4 percentage points, with the biggest gains coming from former Green and Liberal Democrat voters. The researchers noted that the uplift would be most pronounced if the party campaigned on a clear promise to renegotiate entry into the bloc.
Ben Judah, a visiting fellow at Chatham House and former adviser to David Lammy, told the Guardian: “These polls are a massive validation of Andy Burnham’s boldness on Europe. There is close to a national consensus that Brexit was not a success.” He added: “Against this background these results show that Europe as an issue has a unique ability to unite the left and grow the Labour vote share among swing voters. The bolder the stance towards rejoin, the bigger Labour’s reward.”
Cabinet caution and internal divisions
Despite the upbeat numbers, senior Labour figures remain wary of reopening the Brexit divide. Lucy Powell, the party’s deputy leader, warned that “going beyond EU reset plans inherited from Keir Starmer was ‘not possible nor desirable’.” Jonathan Reynolds, the trade secretary, said “constitutional questions” around Britain’s EU relationship were creating uncertainty for businesses, while Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, described rejoining as “not a simple, straightforward thing” and warned that the costs might be unacceptable.
Several cabinet ministers expressed private concerns. One told the Guardian: “Brexit clearly hasn’t worked and the promises made haven’t been kept so Andy is right to open up the question of what the future relationship looks like. But he definitely needs to proceed with caution because we don’t want to restoke division.” Another remarked: “Andy is right to say we need some clarity around our long‑term relationship. Security and trade cooperation are higher up the agenda than they were 10 years ago. But whether that adds up to a real desire for big change in the population I don’t know. My constituents will be cautious.” A third noted differing views across the cabinet but stressed the need to talk to the EU about a long‑term partnership under the “Made in Europe” agenda, adding that current EU proposals were “very challenging.”
A fifth minister admitted scepticism about the terms of any re‑entry deal but conceded that, in a global context, solving people’s problems required a closer relationship with the EU.
What voters really think about Brexit’s legacy
The TMG survey also probed attitudes toward the original 2016 decision. Only 12.2 % described Brexit as a success, while 54.9 % labelled it a failure; 23.2 % said it was neither and 9.7 % were unsure. On the question of whether the UK had been right to leave, 29.7 % agreed, 52.4 % disagreed and 17.9 % expressed no opinion.
Additionally, more than two‑thirds of respondents said trading with the EU mattered more than dealing with the US or China if a choice had to be made. Four in five wanted to keep the pound, and a narrow majority (53.4 %) favoured remaining in the European Convention on Human Rights, compared with 24.2 % opposed.
Why it Matters
The poll signals a palpable shift in public sentiment that could reshape Labour’s electoral strategy and force the government to confront the lingering consequences of Brexit. If Andy Burnham translates this support into a concrete policy promise, Labour may capture disaffected centrist and left‑leaning voters, potentially altering the balance of power in the next parliament. However, the internal caution expressed by senior ministers highlights the risk of reigniting sectarian tensions that have defined British politics since 2016, suggesting any move toward re‑entry must be handled with careful messaging and a clear-eyed assessment of the economic and constitutional trade‑offs involved.
