As Iran enters its tenth day of one of the most extreme internet shutdowns in history, with 92 million citizens cut off from all internet services and even disruptions to phone and text messaging, concerns are growing that the country is moving towards a more permanent and restrictive online environment.
The Iranian government initiated the blackout on January 8th, apparently in an effort to stifle dissent and prevent international scrutiny of a crackdown on protesters. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has claimed the internet was cut off in response to what he described as externally directed “terrorist operations.”
However, reports suggest that behind the scenes, authorities may be making plans to restrict international web access permanently. According to the news website IranWire, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told journalists that international web access will not be available until at least the Iranian New Year in late March.
Internet freedom observers at FilterWatch believe the government is hastily implementing new systems and rules to cut Iran off from the international internet. “There should be no expectation of reopening international internet access, and even afterward, users’ access to the international internet will never return to its previous form,” FilterWatch said, citing unnamed government sources.
While the BBC cannot independently verify this report or the timing of its implementation, journalists who spoke to BBC Persian also said they were told that internet access would not be restored anytime soon.
This latest shutdown is part of a long history of internet restrictions in Iran, with most Western social media apps and platforms blocked, as well as external news websites like BBC News. However, many Iranians have been able to access popular apps such as Instagram using Virtual Private Networks (VPNs).
Internet freedom campaigners at Access Now say Iran has consistently used shutdowns as a way to mask mass violence and brutal crackdowns on protesters, as seen during the nationwide internet shutdowns during the November 2019 and September 2022 protests.
The current blackout has lasted longer than any previous shutdown, and the impact on livelihoods in Iran is being severely felt, with e-commerce particularly affected.
According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), as of 18 January, more than 3,300 confirmed protester deaths have been recorded, with more than 4,380 cases under review. The agency also reports that the number of arrests has reached 24,266 across 187 cities.
However, the lack of internet access means these figures cannot be independently verified, and the real number of people killed and detained is believed to be significantly higher.
Internet monitoring project FilterWatch says the latest shutdowns spell the start of a more extreme “digital isolation” and increased surveillance on what is said, sent, and viewed online. Amir Rashidi, director of cyber security and digital rights at the Miaan Group, which runs FilterWatch, told the BBC he believes the authorities are moving towards a tiered system in which access to the global internet would no longer be automatic but subject to approval.
If Iran goes ahead with the reported plans, it will be following similar systems in Russia and China, which have led the world in internet control, not just with extensive state censorship over online discussion but also with what people are able to access abroad.
However, unlike China, which built state control into the internet as the web spread decades ago, Russia is having to retrofit state control into complex systems. Russia is going a step further than China and planning to switch itself off from the worldwide web with a “kill switch,” which will apparently be used at times of crisis.
While the Iranian regime has likely moved ahead with its longer-term plans, using the current blackout as a reason to make the technical switches and orders now, the question is no longer just technical, but political. Whether such systems are fully implemented now depends on the political will of the authorities.
Despite the increasing tools being used by repressive regimes, some experts remain cautiously optimistic about the future of the internet. They cite advances in low-Earth orbit (LEO) internet services, such as Starlink, which have complicated control for Iran during the protests, as well as emerging apps that use mesh networks relying on Bluetooth, which can bring connectivity where there is none.
As the cat-and-mouse game between repressive regimes and the quest for universal internet access continues, the situation in Iran remains a concerning example of the lengths some governments will go to maintain control over information and communication.