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In a pivotal moment for British politics, Labour MPs are urging Andy Burnham to promptly initiate a leadership challenge if he secures victory in the highly anticipated Makerfield by-election. This election, set to take place on Thursday, has the potential to significantly influence the future of the Labour Party and its current leader, Sir Keir Starmer. With a voter base of 76,641 in the historically working-class town near Wigan, the stakes have never been higher.
Urgency for Change
As the by-election approaches, Labour representatives are expressing their impatience for a leadership shake-up. There are concerns that Burnham might delay a challenge until a new Greater Manchester mayor is appointed. However, one Labour MP emphasised the necessity of immediate action, stating, “We can’t mess around and delay further.” The sentiment for urgency is echoed by Riverside MP Kim Johnson, who indicated that her colleagues are eager for the contest to commence “hopefully as soon as possible,” with some suggesting that formal proceedings could begin as early as Monday.
Burnham, who is widely expected to triumph in the by-election, has been vocal about the need for change in British governance. During a rally on the eve of the election, he declared, “A vote for me is a vote to end 40 years of trickle-down economics that didn’t trickle down much at all.” He promised voters a commitment to reducing living costs and improving financial conditions for constituents, particularly in the North of England.
Leadership Contest Looms
The pressure on Sir Keir Starmer escalates as former health secretary Wes Streeting has hinted at the possibility of launching a leadership bid as soon as next week if Burnham emerges victorious. Streeting described the current state of the party as “paralysis” and suggested that a leadership challenge may be necessary if Starmer does not resign voluntarily. This sentiment was echoed by various MPs, who are keen to resolve the uncertainties surrounding the leadership of the party.
Meanwhile, Burnham’s potential challengers for the leadership include Al Carns, a former armed forces minister, although Angela Rayner appears poised to support Burnham’s candidacy instead. There is a palpable sense of impatience among Labour MPs, with one veteran member noting, “I think patience has run out. A contest could take months, and we have to get this done.”
In a last-ditch effort to retain his position, Starmer has offered Burnham a government role should he win the by-election. However, sources close to Burnham indicate he is unlikely to accept such an offer, signalling his readiness to pursue leadership ambitions.
Polling Insights
Recent data indicates that Burnham is favoured to win the by-election by approximately 5 percentage points, with Labour’s internal polling suggesting an even more substantial lead. The party’s canvassing efforts have revealed that a significant portion of voters view Burnham’s election as a means to remove Starmer from his position as Prime Minister.
Polling analysts from Survation have projected that Burnham’s victory margin could be as large as 10 points, with a Politics UK poll indicating he would likely secure 46 per cent of the vote, compared to 39 per cent for Reform UK and 7 per cent for the right-wing Restore Britain party.
The implications of a Burnham defeat could be devastating for Labour, leaving the party in a prolonged leadership crisis, especially if Starmer insists on remaining in power. Renowned political analyst Professor Sir John Curtice warned that a loss in Makerfield could hinder Labour’s prospects heading into a general election, particularly if there is a perception that Starmer is unfit for leadership.
The Broader Implications
The potential outcomes of the Makerfield by-election extend beyond mere party politics. A victory for Burnham could reinvigorate the Labour Party’s image and provide a significant morale boost, while a loss might indicate deeper issues within the party’s connection to its traditional voter base. Tory peer Lord Robert Hayward remarked that a defeat for Labour would not only be a setback for the party but could also bolster Reform UK’s standing and challenge Labour’s relevance in its traditional heartlands.
If Burnham succeeds, it could mark a turning point for Labour, transitioning the party into a new era under his leadership. Conversely, a loss would underscore the growing discontent among voters and the necessity for Labour to reassess its strategy and leadership.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Makerfield by-election is poised to have far-reaching consequences for the Labour Party, potentially reshaping its leadership dynamics and electoral viability. With the electorate’s sentiment reflecting a desire for change, the pressure mounts on Burnham and Labour to deliver a clear message and a compelling vision for the future. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the decisions made in the coming days could determine the party’s trajectory in the run-up to the next general election and beyond.
