In a pivotal by-election held on Saturday, 1 August 2026, Bev Craig has emerged victorious in the race for mayor of Greater Manchester, succeeding Andy Burnham. This significant win for Labour was marked by a notable “Burnham bounce” influencing national polls, as Craig’s triumph over Reform UK’s Sian Astley solidifies Labour’s hold on the region amidst a historically low voter turnout.
Low Turnout Dampens Election Engagement
Only 25% of the over two million eligible voters in Greater Manchester participated in the election, a stark contrast to previous mayoral contests. This lack of engagement raises questions about voter motivation and the overall health of democratic participation in the region. Craig secured 47.15% of the votes in the first round, falling just shy of the outright majority required under the Supplementary Vote system. Astley, trailing with 20.99%, forced the election into a second round.
In this decisive second round, Craig garnered a total of 309,525 votes, outpacing Astley, who received 157,178 votes. This win marks a historic moment, as it is the first instance of a Greater Manchester mayoral election progressing to a second round, demonstrating the evolving political landscape in the area.
Craig’s Vision for Greater Manchester
Following her election, Craig delivered an impassioned victory speech at the Co-op Live arena, pledging to “defend this city region with every bone in my body.” She emphasised her commitment to improving the lives of the residents across Greater Manchester, signalling a proactive approach to the challenges facing the region.
Craig’s victory is particularly significant as it follows Burnham’s tenure, during which he won three consecutive elections with over 60% of the vote. His decision to step back to Westminster had raised concerns among some Labour supporters about the party’s ability to maintain its grip on the mayoralty. However, Craig’s success reflects the party’s current momentum, buoyed by Burnham’s recent elevation in national politics.
The Wider Political Implications
Craig’s victory not only retains Labour’s control in Greater Manchester but also signals a shift in the party’s fortunes nationally. The so-called “Burnham bounce” has provided Labour with renewed energy following Burnham’s transition to a leadership role, which has been seen as a catalyst for a broader resurgence in Labour’s popularity.
The election results highlighted the fragmented nature of voter support in the region, with the Green Party’s Geraldine Coggins receiving 64,968 votes, while the Conservatives, led by Phil Eckersley, managed only 41,021 votes. Other candidates, including Marcus Farmer (Independent) and Richard Kilpatrick (Liberal Democrats), received 2,969 and 14,702 votes respectively, indicating a diverse but divided electorate.
Why it Matters
Bev Craig’s victory is a crucial indicator of Labour’s resilience and adaptability in the face of changing political dynamics. As the party navigates a new chapter post-Burnham, her leadership will be instrumental in addressing pressing issues such as housing, public transport, and climate change within the Greater Manchester region. The low turnout, however, serves as a wake-up call, urging both political parties and civic leaders to engage more effectively with constituents to ensure that future elections reflect the will of a more active electorate. The outcomes of this by-election could set the tone for Labour’s strategy moving forward, particularly in the context of upcoming national elections.
