Andy Burnham is gearing up for a fierce contest in the upcoming byelection for Makerfield, where his chances of success hang in the balance. The Greater Manchester mayor is expected to be announced as Labour’s candidate later this week, but his allies are sounding alarms over the daunting challenge posed by Reform UK. With the party having secured over 50% of the vote in recent local elections, the stakes have never been higher for Burnham and the future of Labour.
The Stakes Are High
Burnham’s campaign is set against a backdrop of intense political rivalry. Polls indicate that he is barely leading against Reform UK, which plans to leverage hot-button issues like immigration and Brexit in its campaign strategy. The byelection, scheduled for around 18 June, is not just a test for Burnham; it could also shape the trajectory of Labour and its leader, Keir Starmer. Should Burnham succeed, he has indicated he may challenge Starmer’s leadership, while a loss could leave the party reeling and Starmer politically vulnerable.
“It’s impossible to overstate how perilous this situation is,” remarked an ally of Burnham. “I would estimate his chances of victory at around 45%, perhaps slightly more.” The sentiment reflects a palpable tension within Labour, as the party grapples with its identity and direction amidst internal conflicts.
Campaigning in Makerfield
Over the weekend, Burnham was seen actively campaigning in Makerfield alongside Lucy Powell, Labour’s deputy leader. His schedule was packed with meetings involving senior Labour figures as he prepared for the imminent candidate selection process. The deadline for applications concludes at midday on Monday, with a formal recommendation from Labour’s executive committee expected shortly thereafter.
Local sentiment could play a pivotal role in the byelection. Despite the recent local election results, Burnham’s established popularity in Greater Manchester may give him a fighting chance. Luke Tryl, director of the research organisation More in Common, noted, “We’re witnessing two powerful forces at play—the demographics favouring Reform versus Burnham’s personal appeal. The outcome could be decisive.”
The EU and Immigration Dilemma
One of the key challenges for Burnham will be navigating Labour’s stance on European Union membership, especially following comments from potential leadership rival Wes Streeting, who suggested a pro-EU direction. This has sparked contention within the party, as many members advocate for a softer approach towards the EU, while Makerfield constituents largely supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum.
As the byelection approaches, Reform UK is expected to spotlight Labour’s internal discord regarding Europe. This puts Burnham in a precarious position: he must balance the desires of Labour’s membership with the sentiments of local voters who lean towards a harder stance on immigration. Tom Baldwin, a former Labour official, cautioned that any hardline rhetoric could alienate progressive members, complicating Burnham’s long-term leadership aspirations.
Starmer’s Future at Stake
While Burnham navigates these treacherous waters, Keir Starmer is reportedly reassessing his strategy in light of potential challenges. Allies have indicated that Starmer is open to stepping aside should Burnham secure a decisive victory in Makerfield, signalling a possible shift in leadership dynamics within Labour.
Starmer, who spent the weekend contemplating his political future, has insisted he will run again if challenged. However, insiders suggest he may be reconsidering this hardline stance depending on the byelection’s outcome. “His position is not fixed; it will depend on how things play out in Makerfield,” said one friend.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Makerfield byelection could be a watershed moment for Labour, determining not only the fate of Andy Burnham but also setting the tone for the party’s direction under Keir Starmer. A victory for Burnham could invigorate Labour’s prospects and challenge Starmer’s leadership, while a loss could signal a deeper crisis, forcing the party to confront its identity amid rising competition from Reform UK. In a political landscape already fraught with uncertainty, all eyes will be on Makerfield as a bellwether for Labour’s future.
