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In a notable shift within the UK political landscape, Labour is experiencing a surge in support following the ascension of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister. This so-called “Burnham bounce” has been solidified by the party’s decisive victory in the recent Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, marking a significant moment for Labour after enduring a prolonged period of underperformance.
Polls Reflect a New Momentum
Recent opinion polls indicate that Labour’s support has surged to the mid-20s percentage-wise, a notable increase from the dismal 19% it recorded before Burnham took over the leadership after Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation. This bounce, while indeed positive, is tempered by the reality that Labour remains significantly below the 35% it achieved in the 2024 general election.
Historical context reveals that mid-term leadership changes often yield a boost for the incumbent party. For instance, Gordon Brown’s assumption of leadership in 2007 saw Labour’s popularity rise by seven points, while the Conservatives enjoyed a six-point increase with Boris Johnson’s arrival in 2019. The exceptional case was Liz Truss, whose brief tenure failed to generate any uplift, overshadowed as it was by national mourning for Queen Elizabeth II.
Burnham’s situation is particularly challenging, given the low bar set by his predecessor. Starmer’s resignation left Labour with the lowest mid-term poll rating recorded, which adds a layer of complexity to the current political climate. Yet, Burnham’s popularity appears to have reinvigorated Labour, as evidenced by their recent electoral success.
Manchester By-Election: A Test of Strength
Labour’s triumph in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election saw the party secure 47% of the first preference votes, a significant improvement from the mere 24% during the local elections in May. Although this figure falls short of the impressive 63% Burnham achieved in the previous mayoral election prior to the 2024 polls, it signals a recovery in voter confidence.
In contrast, the Reform party, led by Nigel Farage, has faced a decline in support, now polling closely behind Labour. Burnham’s cautious approach to calling an early election reflects this narrow lead, which is under threat from ongoing controversies surrounding Reform’s funding sources and Farage’s political manoeuvrings.
Reform’s Woes and the Political Landscape
Reform’s recent struggles are notable. Allegations regarding the legitimacy of their funding have cast a shadow over the party, leading to a dip in their polling numbers. Farage’s announcement on 7 July to step down and contest a by-election in Clacton has only compounded their difficulties, resulting in a three-point drop in support, marking their lowest rating in over a year.
In the Manchester by-election, Reform’s share of the vote fell significantly, indicating a lack of voter confidence. Compounding these woes, a splinter group led by Rupert Lowe, Restore Britain, has managed to siphon off nearly 9% of the Manchester vote, further complicating Reform’s position and highlighting the fractious nature of the current political discourse.
Greens and Liberal Democrats: Casualties of Change
The principal beneficiaries of Labour’s renewed momentum appear to be the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, both of whom have seen their support dwindle in the wake of Burnham’s leadership. The Greens, once a viable alternative for disillusioned Labour voters, have slipped to 11% in the polls, down from a more robust showing prior to Starmer’s departure.
This loss is particularly striking given that 14% of Labour’s voters in the last election were poised to back the Greens; that number now stands at only 9%. As Labour regains ground, it has managed to win back disenchanted voters, with 67% of those who previously supported them indicating a return to the fold since Burnham’s leadership commenced.
Why it Matters
The “Burnham bounce” represents a critical juncture for Labour as it seeks to re-establish itself as a credible force in British politics. However, the party’s resurgence is fragile, contingent on Burnham’s ability to deliver on policy challenges and win back the working-class voters who have drifted towards Reform. As the political landscape continues to shift, the stakes remain high; Burnham’s success or failure may well dictate Labour’s fortunes in the next general election and beyond. The coming months will be pivotal as the party navigates the complexities of governance while striving to cement its place in the hearts and minds of the electorate.