In a political landscape that has shifted dramatically since the appointment of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister, recent opinion polls indicate that Labour is experiencing what has been dubbed the “Burnham bounce.” However, while the party’s fortunes appear to be improving, the reality is less about a seismic shift and more about a modest recovery, as highlighted by their recent victory in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election.
Polls Reflect a Cautious Optimism
Since Burnham took the reins at Downing Street, Labour’s poll ratings have risen to the mid-20s, marking its highest position since early last year. This surge comes after a dismal 19% rating just before Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation. Polls conducted in the past week illustrate a clear bounce, yet the party still trails significantly behind the 35% it secured in the 2024 general election.
The historical context of new prime ministers suggests that such a bounce is not unusual. For instance, Gordon Brown saw Labour’s support jump by seven points following his ascension in 2007, while Boris Johnson experienced a six-point rise in 2019. Conversely, Liz Truss’s brief premiership failed to provide any uplift, overshadowed by the national mourning after Queen Elizabeth II’s death.
Burnham’s Challenges Ahead
Despite the current uptick in support, Burnham’s position is precarious. He assumes leadership from a party that is still grappling with one of its worst poll standings in modern history. The figures at his disposal indicate that Labour’s average rating is the lowest for any mid-term prime minister stepping into the role. The challenge remains considerable, as Burnham seeks to rebuild trust and confidence among voters who have turned away from Labour in recent years.
The recent by-election victory in Manchester, where Labour captured 47% of the first preference vote, is a sign of recovery. While this figure falls short of Burnham’s impressive 63% in the last mayoral contest prior to the 2024 election, it represents a significant improvement from the 24% Labour garnered in May’s local elections, and even a four-point increase from the last general election.
Reform’s Decline Fuels Labour’s Recovery
The apparent boost for Labour is not solely the result of a renewed public appetite for the party. Reform UK, under the leadership of Nigel Farage, has faced its own set of troubles, which may have inadvertently benefitted Labour. Following allegations regarding questionable funding sources, Farage’s announcement of his resignation and subsequent bid for re-election has resulted in a dip in Reform’s support. Polling figures show that Reform has fallen from an average of 27% to 24%, a troubling trend for a party that has been a key player in recent elections.
In the Manchester by-election, Reform’s share of the vote was down significantly, reflecting the party’s difficulties. This shift has provided Labour a crucial edge, allowing them to regain traction that had previously been lost.
The Green Party and the Liberal Democrats: A Shrinking Base
In addition to Reform’s woes, Labour’s bounce is also attributed to a decline in support for the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats. Since Burnham’s uncontested rise to leadership, both parties have lost two points in the polls. The Greens, in particular, have seen a drop among former Labour voters, with support dwindling from 14% to 9%. This loss of confidence among progressive voters has further solidified Labour’s position as the primary alternative to the Conservatives.
Despite these positive signs for Labour, the party must remain vigilant. Winning back the working-class, pro-Brexit demographic that has increasingly turned to Reform will be crucial for Burnham’s long-term success.
Why it Matters
The “Burnham bounce” offers a moment of cautious optimism for Labour amidst a backdrop of political uncertainty and disillusionment. However, the party’s future hinges on Burnham’s ability to translate this temporary uplift into sustained support. With the electorate’s trust at stake, the real test will be whether Labour can deliver on its promises and regain the loyalty of its traditional base. The political landscape remains fluid, and as Burnham navigates these tumultuous waters, the stakes have never been higher for the party.
