In a political landscape increasingly defined by volatility, Labour’s recent gains under new leader Andy Burnham signal a notable shift in public sentiment. Following a decisive victory in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, Labour has experienced a surge in support, marking a substantial turnaround from the struggles of its predecessor, Sir Keir Starmer.
Polls Reflect Labour’s Recovery
Recent opinion polls reveal that Labour’s popularity has climbed to an average of around 25%, its highest rating since early last year. This resurgence follows Starmer’s resignation, during which Labour was languishing at a mere 19%. While the ‘Burnham bounce’ is evident, it is crucial to note that Labour still faces significant challenges as it prepares for potential future contests.
Historically, new prime ministers often benefit from a short-term boost in popularity, a phenomenon observed with Gordon Brown in 2007 and Boris Johnson in 2019. However, Burnham’s ascent comes after the party’s lowest mid-term rating, illustrating the depth of the electoral challenges he has inherited. Despite the uptick, Labour’s current standings still lag behind its 2024 general election performance, where it secured 35% of the vote.
Decisive By-Election Results
The recent by-election in Greater Manchester showcased Labour’s ability to rally support, achieving a 47% share of the first preference votes. This result is a marked improvement from the 24% Labour garnered in the local elections earlier this year and even surpasses its performance in the 2024 general election by four percentage points. However, it remains significantly lower than Burnham’s previous 63% during the last mayoral election.
Despite this positive outcome, Burnham has ruled out an early general election, wary of the narrow lead over Reform UK. The party has faced its own set of troubles, including controversies surrounding funding sources and leadership challenges, which have contributed to Labour’s newfound edge.
Reform’s Struggles Amidst Transition
Reform UK, under Nigel Farage, has encountered significant setbacks, with its poll ratings dropping following allegations regarding the legality of its funding. Just prior to Farage’s announcement of a return to the Clacton constituency, Reform’s polling stood at 27%. Post-announcement, that figure plummeted to 24%, the lowest it has been in over a year.
The party’s decline was further compounded by an emerging competitor, Restore Britain, which drew nearly 9% of the vote in Manchester, outperforming the Conservatives in the process. These developments suggest that Labour’s gains are as much a product of Reform’s difficulties as they are of Burnham’s appeal.
A Shift in Voter Allegiances
The ‘Burnham bounce’ has also stemmed from Labour’s ability to reclaim support from disillusioned voters of the Green Party and the Liberal Democrats, both of which have seen their figures dip by two points since Burnham’s leadership began. The Greens, in particular, have suffered, losing ground among former Labour voters who previously aligned with them during Starmer’s tenure.
Currently, 67% of those who voted for Labour in 2024 indicate they would do so again, up from 57% during Starmer’s leadership. This shift signals a potential realignment in voter loyalties, as Burnham works to restore faith in the party among its traditional base.
Why it Matters
The unfolding political dynamics in the UK indicate a pivotal moment for Labour under Andy Burnham’s leadership. While the party appears to be on the upswing, the real test will be whether it can maintain this momentum and effectively address the pressing issues facing the electorate. Burnham’s ability to reconnect with key demographics, particularly working-class pro-Brexit voters, will be crucial as Labour gears up for the next general election. The coming months will be critical in determining whether this ‘Burnham bounce’ translates into lasting political success or merely a fleeting moment of optimism in an unpredictable political landscape.
