In the wake of Andy Burnham’s ascension to the role of Labour leader, recent opinion polls indicate a notable but limited resurgence for the party, often referred to as the “Burnham bounce.” Following a convincing victory in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, Labour’s polling average has crept into the mid-20s, marking its highest level since early last year. Nonetheless, significant obstacles remain as Burnham grapples with the remnants of his predecessor’s unpopular legacy and the competitive landscape presented by Reform UK.
Polling Insights: A Mixed Picture
The political environment has shifted since Burnham took office, with polls reflecting a modest increase in Labour’s popularity. Currently, Labour enjoys an average support of approximately 25%, a significant rise from the 19% recorded in June when Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation. Yet, despite this uptick, Labour remains in a precarious position, with Reform narrowly trailing behind.
Historically, new prime ministers often experience a surge in support shortly after taking office. For instance, Gordon Brown saw a seven-point rise in Labour’s ratings after he succeeded Tony Blair in 2007, and Boris Johnson enjoyed a six-point boost following his appointment in 2019. However, Burnham’s situation is slightly different; he has inherited a party in a challenging position, with his predecessor leaving behind the lowest poll rating of any mid-term departing leader.
The Greater Manchester By-Election: A Turning Point?
Despite the low starting point, Labour’s recent success in the Manchester mayoral by-election, where the party secured 47% of the first preference votes, offers a glimmer of hope. This result is remarkable when compared to the 24% Labour received in local elections earlier this year and even surpasses its share in the 2024 general election. However, it is essential to note that this figure is a notable decline from Burnham’s earlier 63% share in the previous mayoral election.
The by-election results suggest that Burnham’s leadership is beginning to resonate with voters, although the party’s journey to regain its former strength remains arduous.
Reform’s Troubles: A Boost for Labour?
While Burnham’s bounce appears to be benefiting Labour, it is essential to consider the challenges facing Reform UK, which has recently found itself in a decline. Issues surrounding the legality of the party’s funding sources and the recent announcement by Nigel Farage to stand down have contributed to a drop in support for Reform. Following these controversies, the party’s polling average fell from 27% to 24%, marking its lowest position in 15 months.
In Manchester, Reform’s share of votes also decreased significantly compared to earlier local elections. The emergence of a splinter group, Restore Britain, which has garnered nearly 9% of the vote, has further complicated Reform’s prospects, suggesting that Labour’s recovery is as much about Reform’s troubles as it is about its own resurgence.
The Broader Political Landscape
As Labour begins to reclaim some of its former supporters, particularly from the Greens and the Liberal Democrats, the party still faces significant hurdles. The Greens, who had previously attracted disillusioned Labour voters, have seen their support dwindle in the wake of Burnham’s leadership, dropping to 11% from a prior high of 15%. This shift indicates that Burnham’s strategy of winning back former Labour supporters is gaining traction.
Despite these encouraging signs, Labour is still trailing the 35% it achieved in the last general election, and Burnham must now focus on reconnecting with the working-class voters who have shifted their allegiance to Reform.
Why it Matters
The unfolding dynamics within Labour and its relationship with Reform UK highlight the complexities of the current political landscape in Britain. Burnham’s ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial as he seeks to consolidate support and lay the groundwork for future electoral success. As Labour strives to regain its footing, the implications of this “Burnham bounce” extend beyond party politics; they signal a potential shift in voter sentiment that could reshape the UK’s political future. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Burnham can translate this initial recovery into a sustainable pathway towards a more robust Labour presence in the next general election.
