In a striking revelation, an investigation has uncovered that regions in the UK that voted overwhelmingly for Brexit have witnessed a significant influx of foreign workers since the referendum. However, this growth comes amid rising economic deprivation, challenging the narrative that leaving the EU would deliver prosperity for these areas.
Migration Trends in Leave-Voting Regions
Analysis of government data shows that foreign worker numbers have surged in Leave-voting areas, with a remarkable increase since the 2016 referendum. The year ending March 2023 recorded a peak in net migration, with nearly 944,000 individuals arriving on health and care visas. Yet, this trend has since reversed, with numbers dwindling as visa expirations take effect.
Take Wigan, for instance, a constituency that mirrors the broader trend. In June 2016, foreign workers comprised less than 5% of the local workforce. By December 2024, that figure had neared 10%, effectively more than doubling the percentage of non-UK employees. In comparison, the national average saw only a 40% rise in foreign workers during the same timeframe, indicating that Leave areas, starting from a lower base, are now adjusting more significantly to immigration.
Economic Decline in Leave Areas
While immigration rates have soared in these regions, so too has economic deprivation. A separate analysis highlights that Leave-voting constituencies like Boston, Skegness, and Hartlepool have experienced a decline in relative prosperity since the Brexit vote. In stark contrast, strong Remain areas, such as Bristol Central and Cambridge, have seen considerable improvements from 2015 to 2025.
Anand Menon, director of The UK in a Changing Europe, pointed out that political reactions often hinge on the perception of change rather than sheer numbers. “An increase of 10,000 immigrants in central London might go unnoticed, but 200 new arrivals in a smaller town like Boston could feel like a seismic shift,” he noted.
Health and Deprivation Disparities
The investigation found stark contrasts in health outcomes and deprivation metrics between Leave and Remain constituencies over the last decade. Areas with higher Leave votes have struggled more with health-related issues, such as increased risks of early death and higher hospital admission rates for severe illnesses. Meanwhile, Remain-voting constituencies have generally improved their standings in health and housing accessibility.
For instance, Makerfield saw its overall deprivation ranking slip only seven places relative to other constituencies from 2015 to 2025. However, it plummeted 52 spots in housing deprivation and an alarming 127 places in crime rankings. This paints a troubling picture of a community grappling with the dual pressures of immigration and economic decline.
A Complex Picture
Menon cautioned against oversimplifying the narrative by attributing all economic woes to Brexit. “It’s tempting to blame Brexit for every issue, but this is not the complete picture,” he said. The enduring challenges faced by less affluent regions, many of which supported leaving the EU, have roots that extend beyond the referendum.
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and shifts in manufacturing have all contributed to the difficulties faced by these communities. “If the economy had been robust prior to 2016, why would a majority have voted to leave?” Menon posed, suggesting that the discontent was already brewing long before Brexit became a reality.
Why it Matters
The findings of this investigation serve as a critical reminder of the complex realities facing post-Brexit Britain. While migration levels in Leave-voting areas have surged, so too has deprivation, challenging assumptions that leaving the EU would yield immediate benefits. As the UK navigates its new relationship with Europe, these insights highlight the urgent need for targeted policies that address both economic and social disparities in communities that voted for change.
