As Lebanon finds itself once again ensnared in armed conflict, President Joseph Aoun faces the daunting task of navigating a peace process that hinges on the complex and often contentious relationship with Hezbollah. The Lebanese government, strained by internal divisions and external pressures, seeks to establish stability while contending with a militia that remains a formidable force both politically and militarily.
A Fragile Ceasefire and a Divided Nation
In August, I had the opportunity to meet with President Aoun at the Baabda Palace, perched high above Beirut. Aoun, who previously served as the commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, took office following a devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah that left the nation in tatters. At that time, Hezbollah was experiencing an unprecedented period of isolation, and Aoun expressed a resolute desire to address the militia’s arsenal. “I was born an optimist,” he declared, convinced that disarmament was achievable.
Despite a tenuous ceasefire that had come into effect after the November 2024 war, tensions remained palpable. Israeli airstrikes continued to target individuals and installations linked to Hezbollah, with drone activity frequently disrupting the lives of civilians. Even from my residence in eastern Beirut, the unsettling hum of drones was a stark reminder of the unresolved conflict.
The Complexity of Hezbollah’s Role
For many of Hezbollah’s supporters, the group serves as their primary defense against Israel, viewed as an aggressor intent on seizing Lebanese territory. Conversely, detractors accuse Hezbollah, a Shia Muslim organisation, of prioritising Iranian interests and dragging Lebanon into unnecessary conflicts. The stakes escalated dramatically following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in February, when Hezbollah retaliated against Israel, prompting a renewed cycle of violence.
In a bid to halt the bloodshed, President Aoun proposed direct negotiations with Israel—a significant move for two nations lacking formal diplomatic relations. This overture, however, was largely ignored until recently, when the United States brokered a ceasefire with Iran, leading Israel to launch an extensive aerial campaign that claimed over 300 lives in a single day.
Hezbollah: A Militia or a Political Power?
Hezbollah, established during the Israeli occupation of Lebanon in the 1980s, has evolved into a multifaceted entity that encompasses military, political, and social dimensions. Although the Taif Agreement of 1989 called for the disarmament of all militias, Hezbollah maintained its armed presence, framing itself as a resistance movement. The United Nations Resolution 1701, which sought to end the 2006 war with Israel and mandated Hezbollah’s disarmament, has never been fully realised.
In Lebanon’s intricate power-sharing landscape, Hezbollah is not merely a militia but a significant political player, represented in parliament and providing essential services in areas where the state has faltered. President Aoun’s vision of a “state monopoly on arms” faces significant challenges, particularly as Hezbollah’s leadership steadfastly refuses discussions regarding comprehensive disarmament.
The Search for Lasting Solutions
Despite Aoun’s commitment to addressing the disarmament issue, he has cautioned against the potential for violence if such actions are undertaken without Hezbollah’s consent. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he asserted during our meeting. As the Lebanese government grapples with a lack of leverage over Hezbollah, the prospects for a sustainable peace remain uncertain.
Lebanon, with its population of approximately 5.8 million and recognition of 18 religious sects, finds itself in a precarious situation. A recent Gallup poll revealed that a significant majority of Lebanese citizens support the notion that only the national army should possess weapons. However, this sentiment is not uniformly shared across the sectarian divide, highlighting deep-rooted tensions within the country.
Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Naim Qassem, has made it clear that the disarmament of the group cannot be forced upon the Shia community, warning that such an attempt would lead to disaster. He emphasised the government’s inability to disarm Hezbollah, stating, “Lebanon has nothing to offer,” and described the current government as lacking leverage in negotiations.
Why it Matters
The ongoing conflict in Lebanon serves as a stark reminder of the complexities of regional politics and the pervasive influence of armed groups like Hezbollah. As violence escalates and a humanitarian crisis unfolds, the challenges facing Lebanon’s government intensify. The inability to disarm Hezbollah not only perpetuates a cycle of violence but also threatens the fragile fabric of Lebanese society. The quest for peace remains fraught with obstacles, yet it is essential for the future stability of Lebanon and the wider region.
