The political spotlight is firmly fixed on Makerfield as the constituency prepares for a high-stakes by-election that could reshape the Labour Party’s leadership landscape. With around 76,000 constituents in the suburbs of Wigan and nearby former mining communities, this traditionally Labour stronghold is now grappling with a resurgent Reform UK, putting pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.
A Safe Seat Under Threat
Historically, Makerfield has been a bastion for Labour since its inception in 1983. However, recent local council elections have seen a dramatic rise in support for Reform UK, raising questions about the party’s grip on the constituency. The political climate has turned increasingly turbulent, with calls from within Labour for Starmer to step aside and allow new leadership to emerge. Despite the internal strife, Starmer has remained resolute, refusing to set a timetable for his departure.
In a surprising twist, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is eyeing a bid for prime minister but faces an uphill battle in Makerfield, where current MP Josh Simons has announced his decision to step down. Burnham’s ambitions hinge on winning this by-election, but the stakes are high. A loss could deal a significant blow to his political trajectory and Labour’s prospects in a broader leadership contest.
Burnham’s Bid: Support and Skepticism
Burnham, a seasoned politician with a track record as an MP and minister, is well-regarded in some quarters. He served as the MP for Leigh before becoming mayor in 2017, but many voters remain sceptical about his chances. Penelope Nelson, a nursery worker and Burnham supporter, believes he understands the needs of the community but acknowledges the formidable challenge ahead. “He knows what the people want, but I think he’ll have a fight on his hands,” she remarked.
Conversely, others express disillusionment with Labour. Retired voter Stan Crook voiced his concerns, stating, “Labour has let the whole country down. Nobody’s got any faith in Keir Starmer.” His sentiments resonate with a portion of the electorate feeling disconnected from the party’s current leadership. Nonetheless, some see Burnham’s initiatives as a reason to rally behind him, with carpet cleaner Alan Entwistle praising his accomplishments in public transport.
The Path to Candidacy
For Burnham to contest the by-election, he must first secure approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) and local party officials. Previous attempts to stand in other by-elections were blocked, but there’s an expectation that this time will be different, particularly with the party’s leadership under scrutiny. The NEC’s support could be pivotal, especially as the party navigates its internal challenges.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice has suggested that Burnham’s candidacy could significantly enhance Labour’s chances in a constituency where they are currently struggling. “If it were anyone other than Andy Burnham, Labour would have less than a 5% chance,” Curtice commented, underscoring the importance of his potential candidacy.
Reform UK on the Offensive
Reform UK, buoyed by recent local election successes, is determined to make a mark in Makerfield. The party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, declared their intention to “make Burnham history” and is committed to a vigorous campaign. With the party needing just a 6.7% swing to seize the seat, their ambition is palpable. Voter sentiment appears to be shifting, with some recognising the rise of Reform as a reaction to Labour’s leadership rather than complete abandonment of the party.
Despite the challenges, there are signs of cautious optimism among some constituents. Helen Raymond, a Makerfield voter, noted the unexpected strength of Reform’s local performance but maintains hope that Labour can still connect with the electorate.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Makerfield by-election could serve as a bellwether for Labour’s future direction and the potential reshaping of its leadership. Should Burnham succeed, it may pave the way for a leadership contest that could change the dynamics of British politics ahead of the next general election. Conversely, a loss could solidify doubts about Labour’s viability and further entrench Reform UK as a serious contender. As this political drama unfolds, all eyes will be on Makerfield, a constituency poised to influence the national narrative in profound ways.