The former Labour leader warned that the party’s decision to withdraw winter fuel allowances and threaten the welfare safety net has transformed voter disenchantment in Wales into outright hostility, a shift he says helped deliver a decisive electoral setback in May and is now undermining confidence in plans to hand justice powers to the Welsh government.
Winter fuel allowance cuts fuel resentment
Speaking in a Newyddion S4C special on Andy Burnham’s first 100 days as prime minister, Lord Kinnock argued that the removal of winter fuel payments and the perception of an insecure welfare system have been pivotal in shaping public opinion. He noted that the Labour UK government reversed its means‑testing plan for pensioners in June 2025 after the policy attracted widespread criticism, a U‑turn that had already led to a 9.3 million reduction in winter fuel payments before the reversal.
“If there is any opposition or resentment to the government on either end of the M4, the other lot are going to pay as well,” Kinnock said. “There is no doubt in my mind that alienation… had been creeping up. It could be a mixture of boredom. It could be a mixture of dislike,” he added, pointing to the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance and threats to the welfare system as key factors that turned passive disillusionment into active dislike.
He also criticised the party’s failure to scrap the two‑child benefit cap quickly enough, suggesting that these policy choices have alienated voters across the region.
Electoral collapse and party’s waning influence
The fallout from these controversies was stark in the May 2026 Senedd election, where Labour saw its long‑standing dominance in Wales erode dramatically. The party fell from a governing position that spanned nearly three decades to a caucus of just nine Senedd members, marking a seismic loss of power.
Kinnock, whose son Stephen Kinnock serves as Welsh Secretary, framed the defeat as a direct consequence of the party’s handling of welfare reforms and the perception that it was out of touch with the everyday concerns of Welsh citizens.
“Now that picture might change, but as I can see it now in October 2026, that’s where we are, there are more disadvantages than advantages,” he concluded, underscoring the depth of the party’s current predicament.
Devolution of justice: promises and doubts
Beyond welfare, Kinnock expressed scepticism about the Welsh government’s drive to devolve justice powers – a flagship demand of Plaid Cymru. While Plaid ministers argue that local control would create a system better attuned to community needs and more integrated with health, housing and education services, Kinnock warned that the proposal lacks concrete safeguards.
“But those guarantees are absent at the moment,” he said. “Until they exist, until they’re in place, the upheaval of creating what would have to be effectively a new system with new management… with an introverted view of the justice system – there would be more downsides than upsides.” He added that any potential benefits would only materialise if the reforms could demonstrably deliver safer streets and a more efficient justice system.
Why it Matters
Kinnock’s assessment signals a pivotal moment for Labour in Wales, highlighting how welfare missteps and contested devolution can erode voter trust and reshape political landscapes. The party’s loss of a 27‑year stronghold underscores the urgency for Labour to rebuild credibility on the ground, while the debate over justice devolution reflects broader tensions around regional autonomy and governance effectiveness in the UK.
