As Scotland’s north-east stands on the brink of a pivotal energy transition, a recent report highlights the potential loss of up to 18,000 jobs in the offshore energy sector by 2035. Professor Paul de Leeuw, director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University, emphasised that the region, historically known as Europe’s oil capital, has a unique opportunity to redefine its energy landscape. However, he cautioned that without immediate action, the region risks a significant skills drain that could hinder its transformation into a renewable energy hub.
A Make-or-Break Moment
The north-east of Scotland, which accounts for approximately one-third of the UK’s offshore oil and gas jobs, is entering what Professor de Leeuw describes as a “make-or-break period.” The energy transition report indicates that while the shift to renewable energy sources could allow the region to evolve into a “world class, multi-energy hub,” there exists a critical “Goldilocks zone” over the next five years. During this timeframe, the decline in traditional oil and gas employment must be counterbalanced by the growth of jobs in the green energy sector to avert a permanent loss of expertise.
Currently, about 90% of the regional workforce is employed in oil and gas, with a mere 10% engaged in renewable energy. By 2035, however, projections suggest that between 55% and 70% of jobs could be within the green energy sector. This transformation is not merely aspirational; it is a necessity for the future economic sustainability of the region.
Leveraging Existing Skills
Professor de Leeuw pointed out that the transition from fossil fuels to renewables presents a unique advantage for the north-east of Scotland, as many skills from the oil and gas sector are highly transferable to offshore renewables. Workers in the region are not only accustomed to the challenges of offshore energy operations but also possess the necessary technical expertise to adapt to new roles with minimal retraining.
He stated, “The workforce that built one of the world’s most productive offshore basins is well-equipped to power its next chapter.” However, he emphasised the urgency of the situation: “The Goldilocks zone is real and the window is closing. Once that skilled workforce disperses, it does not come back.”
To ensure a smooth transition, Professor de Leeuw advocates for substantial investment in the renewable sector, warning that without it, the skilled workforce crucial for future projects may leave the region before comparable opportunities materialise.
Governmental Response and Future Strategies
The UK Energy Minister, Michael Shanks, reassured stakeholders that the government is not hastily abandoning oil and gas production in the North Sea. He highlighted ongoing efforts to create thousands of jobs in renewable energy and infrastructure upgrades across Scotland. “Oil and gas workers are in prime position to take up these opportunities,” he remarked, underscoring the need for a proactive approach to workforce transition.
Scottish Energy Minister Stephen Gethins echoed these sentiments, indicating that the Scottish Government is actively investing in initiatives to retain and develop the skilled workforce. The government has allocated £17 million from its Just Transition Fund, adding to over £85 million invested into various projects since 2022. These investments aim to support job creation and training in offshore wind, marine energy, and carbon capture sectors.
However, Gethins cautioned that a balanced approach is essential. He argued for a managed transition where North Sea oil and gas production is assessed case by case, taking into account climate compatibility and energy security. The current policies, such as the energy profits levy, risk an accelerated decline in North Sea oil and gas production before renewables can fill the gap, threatening the entire transition.
Why it Matters
The transition to renewable energy in north-east Scotland is not just a local issue; it represents a critical pivot point in the UK’s broader energy strategy. With the potential loss of thousands of jobs looming, the region must leverage its existing expertise to foster a sustainable future in green energy. The actions taken in the next few years will determine whether Scotland can successfully navigate this transition or suffer a significant downturn, with implications for economic stability and employment across the sector. The stakes are high, and the need for strategic investment and policy alignment has never been more urgent.
