The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter 2026-2027 forecast, and the news is mostly tame for the vast majority of the United States. Above-average or near-average temperatures are expected to dominate, a pattern consistent with the strengthening El Niño climate cycle taking shape in the Pacific.
But forecasters are warning Americans not to pack away the snow shovels just yet. Several regions face the prospect of biting cold and heavy precipitation — and the Almanac itself is pushing back against any complacency.
“‘Above normal’ is relative,” the publication noted. “While it won’t be as cold as usual, it’s still winter!”
A Tale of Two Winters: East vs West
The forecast divides the country into starkly different experiences. Much of the West, South and Midwest should prepare for a wetter-than-usual season, while the Southwest, East and Plains lean toward drier conditions. The Deep South is tipped for warmer temperatures, though northern stretches could still see the odd flurry.
Perhaps the most disruptive weather is reserved for the southern Northeast, where the Almanac warns of a “more difficult” winter, with above-normal snowfall colliding with below-normal temperatures. The central Appalachians and parts of New England look set for a snowier season too — potentially offering hope to those dreaming of a white Christmas.
The Upper Midwest, despite trending colder, may see less snow than typical. But the Almanac insists there will still be “many chances for flakes to fly in the new year.”
Ohio Valley and Hawaii: The Cold Outliers
Most of the country might be in for a gentle ride, but two regions stand out as exceptions. From New England sweeping down through the Ohio Valley, temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages. The eastern Ohio Valley could face repeated snowstorms throughout the winter months.
Then there is Hawaii. The tropical archipelago, still recovering from the devastation wrought by Hurricane Lala earlier this month, may endure cooler temperatures than usual alongside above-normal rainfall, particularly on the eastern islands later in the season.
The El Niño Factor
The driving force behind the mild outlook is a building super El Niño — a phenomenon that warms Pacific Ocean waters and reshapes weather patterns globally. El Niño winters typically bring milder temperatures to much of the northern US while funnelling wetter conditions across the West and South.
But the Almanac is hedging its bets.
“Those tendencies are also reflected in parts of our 2026-2027 forecast, but El Niño is only one piece of the winter puzzle,” the publication stated.
Two other factors could shake things up: a potential southward shift of the polar vortex, which would drag Arctic air deep into the continent, and a developing pattern in the Indian Ocean that could amplify the Pacific jet stream — that fast-flowing river of air circling the globe that exerts enormous influence over temperature and storm tracks.
The Almanac’s predictions bear a striking resemblance to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s own outlook for December 2026 through February 2027, which also forecasts above-normal to near-normal temperatures across most of the country.
How Much Stock Should You Put in It?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac, a publication dating back more than two centuries, claims an 80 per cent accuracy rate. Its methodology blends solar science, climatology and meteorology, drawing on historical weather patterns, climate data and sunspot activity.
Independent researchers, however, have put the actual accuracy closer to 50 per cent — barely better than a coin flip. And in an era of artificial intelligence-powered weather modelling, even the most sophisticated long-range forecasts remain an imperfect science.
Still, for now, millions of Americans have a rough roadmap for the months ahead. Most can expect a gentler winter than recent memory. Others — particularly in the Northeast, Appalachians and Ohio Valley — should prepare for something closer to the traditional season they remember from childhood.
As the Almanac puts it: it’s still winter.
Why it Matters
Long-range winter forecasts carry real consequences, from heating bills and road salt budgets to airline schedules and agricultural planning. A mild outlook for most of the country could ease energy demand in major population centres, but the forecasts of heavier snow in the Northeast and Appalachians will set nerves jangling for commuters, transit authorities and holiday travellers alike. With a powerful El Niño taking shape and the polar vortex behaving unpredictably, even a broadly mild forecast comes with caveats that could be rewritten in a single cold snap.