Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to embark on a significant diplomatic mission to Armenia this Saturday, aiming to bolster trade and investment ties while simultaneously addressing the ongoing defence needs of Ukraine. His visit, which will last until Monday, coincides with the European Political Community summit in Yerevan, marking Canada’s first participation as a non-European nation in this crucial dialogue aimed at fostering political and security cooperation in the region.
A Shift in Foreign Policy
Jean-François Ratelle, an expert in international studies at the University of Ottawa, has expressed concern that Carney’s visit may not continue Canada’s long-standing advocacy for democracy and peace in Armenia. “We are witnessing a complete change in our foreign policy,” Ratelle stated, highlighting a shift towards prioritising national interests over traditional commitments to promoting democratic values. This perspective raises questions about Canada’s role on the global stage and its historical advocacy for norms that have previously defined its foreign policy.
The summit in Yerevan will convene leaders from various European nations, including President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, among others. Carney’s attendance is anticipated to facilitate discussions on defence procurement agreements, which are increasingly vital as nations reassess their security strategies in the wake of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
Engaging with European Leaders
Carney’s visit is seen as an opportunity to engage directly with European leaders and explore collaborative initiatives that have been launched since the onset of the Ukraine conflict. Achim Hurrelmann, co-director of the Centre for European Studies at Carleton University, noted that the summit serves as a platform for dialogue. “It’s really mainly an attempt to create a forum to talk to each other,” he remarked, suggesting that the prime minister’s focus may be on identifying actionable projects rather than merely making high-level statements about defence cooperation.
The prime minister’s office has not elaborated on the historical context of the Caucasus region in its announcement of the visit. Under the previous Trudeau administration, Canada frequently voiced support for the Armenian diaspora and expressed concern over the ongoing ethnic tensions in the area. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been embroiled in a bitter dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region predominantly populated by ethnic Armenians but internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan.
Historical Context and Current Challenges
The conflict has seen resurgent violence, particularly following the reduction of Russian peacekeepers after the invasion of Ukraine. Azerbaijan’s military campaign against separatists led to the displacement of over 100,000 individuals earlier this year, coinciding with Canada’s establishment of an embassy in Yerevan. In response to Azerbaijan’s aggressive actions, Canada has condemned the military campaign, joined an EU security mission, and temporarily halted military exports to Turkey due to concerns about arms being used against Armenia.
Despite these efforts, Ratelle argues that Canada’s commitment to democracy and human rights in the region has waned since Carney assumed office. He highlights the disconnection between Canada’s rhetoric on ethnic cleansing and the tangible actions necessary to support democratic development in Armenia. “We virtue-signalled… but we didn’t really walk the walk after that,” he noted, underscoring the urgent need for Canada to re-engage with its commitments to fostering democratic values.
The Geopolitical Landscape
As Armenia and Azerbaijan navigate their complex relationship, the region’s geopolitical significance continues to rise, particularly with shared borders with Iran. Both nations are courting American investment as part of broader initiatives aimed at establishing peace through economic collaboration. However, lasting stability remains uncertain, with ongoing disputes over borders, prisoners of war, and the preservation of Armenian cultural heritage.
Ratelle posits that Armenia feels increasingly isolated in its quest for international support amidst a fragile peace process. He expressed disappointment that Carney did not prioritise Caucasus issues during last June’s G7 summit, reflecting a shift towards economic interests over upholding international law. This visit may represent Armenia’s strategy to forge stronger ties with middle powers like Canada, seeking new partnerships in a challenging geopolitical environment.
As Carney prepares for his first visit to Armenia—following Justin Trudeau’s attendance at the Francophonie summit in 2018—his discussions at the European Political Community summit will be pivotal in shaping Canada’s future relations with both Armenia and the broader European landscape.
Why it Matters
This visit is critical as it highlights Canada’s evolving role in international diplomacy, particularly in regions marked by historical conflict and shifting alliances. As global tensions escalate, the ability to build trade ties while advocating for democratic values will be essential for Canada to maintain its influence and credibility on the international stage. The outcomes of Carney’s discussions may not only impact bilateral relations with Armenia but also set a precedent for Canada’s future engagements in Eastern Europe and beyond.
