Quebeckers are heading to the polls on 5 October amid an escalating trade war with the United States, with Premier Christine Fréchette casting the coming campaign as a battle to shield the province from American economic aggression. The 39-day electoral race, launched Thursday in Quebec City, has been dramatically reshaped by last week’s collapse in Canada-U.S. trade negotiations and the subsequent imposition of 50-per-cent tariffs on approximately $28 billion worth of Canadian goods. While sovereignty has long dominated Quebec politics, Fréchette and her rivals have found themselves united in their condemnation of Washington, pushing the long-promised independence referendum firmly into the background.
A Storm Unlike Any Other
Standing before reporters at a campaign launch event, Fréchette drew a stark comparison between the current moment and previous political eras. She declared that the global landscape has shifted so profoundly that what many had perceived as uncertainty now resembles a full-blown tempest.
“We are under full-scale attack, like never before, from our main economic partner,” the Premier stated, making clear that her primary adversary in this election would not be the Parti Québécois or the Quebec Liberals, but rather the occupant of the White House. Her framing positioned the governing Coalition Avenir Québec as the party best equipped to navigate these treacherous geopolitical waters.
The timing of the campaign launch proved particularly consequential. Just days earlier, trade talks between Ottawa and Washington broke down, prompting U.S. President Donald Trump to proceed with sweeping tariffs. The federal government responded with matching counter-measures set to take effect on 8 September. In Quebec City, the political class absorbed these developments with a mixture of alarm and tactical calculation.
Sovereignty Takes a Back Seat
For months, political observers had anticipated that this election would centre on the Parti Québécois’s longstanding commitment to holding a third referendum on independence. Yet when Quebecers cast their ballots in October, the sovereignty question is expected to feature only marginally in the broader debate.
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon attempted to explain the shift in a media availability following his own campaign launch in Montreal. He suggested that Quebeckers are now prioritising economic security over constitutional questions, noting that his party had been transparent about its referendum intentions while acknowledging that voters want to hear positions on a broader range of issues.
Polls indicate that support for sovereignty remains stubbornly stuck around 30 per cent, a figure that has actually declined since Trump’s return to the White House last year. The PQ, which has led in voting intentions for much of the past three years, has found its signature policy increasingly difficult to sell during a period of trade disruption and economic uncertainty.
Marc André Bodet, a professor of political science at Laval University, observed that the referendum question had failed to generate the electoral momentum one might have expected. “You would expect the whole campaign to start with a debate about ‘Are we going to have a referendum or not?’ And that doesn’t seem to be the case,” he noted, adding that the party’s strategy appeared to involve laying out its sovereigntist stall early and then pivoting to other concerns once the formal campaign period began.
Fréchette, for her part, sought to keep the referendum debate alive, warning voters that a PQ government would be distracted by constitutional preparations. “On 5 October, you’ll have a choice to make: a government that works full-time for your priorities or a government that will work part-time because it’s too busy preparing for its referendum,” she told supporters.
Political Rivals Circle
The collapse in trade talks has complicated the electoral calculations for all of Quebec’s major parties, none more so than the governing CAQ itself. After eight years in power, the coalition saw its support erode significantly under former premier François Legault, Fréchette’s predecessor. The new leader has attempted to chart a different course, frequently emphasising that she is seeking a “first mandate for a Fréchette government” rather than simply extending the Legault era.
During his campaign launch, St-Pierre Plamondon launched a pointed critique of the outgoing administration. “After two terms with a majority government, the Legault-Fréchette duo has unfortunately led us to the brink of the precipice,” he declared, arguing that his own economic team would be better positioned to handle the tariff situation. The PQ Leader highlighted his party’s economic credentials while making only passing reference to his referendum plans.
Opposition Leader Charles Milliard of the Quebec Liberals offered a different critique, accusing the CAQ of exploiting the trade crisis for political advantage. “The CAQ is the queen of political theatre,” Milliard told reporters in Quebec City, suggesting that Fréchette was using American tariffs to distract attention from her government’s record. The Liberals, currently serving as the Official Opposition, have struggled to gain traction among francophone voters outside Montreal since Milliard took the helm in February.
Further down the political spectrum, the Quebec Conservatives are hoping to make inroads, particularly in the regions surrounding Quebec City, while the left-leaning Québec Solidaire is focused on holding onto its existing seats. According to Bodet, the presence of five parties all on track to win representation makes predicting the election outcome exceptionally challenging. He noted that the PQ’s polling lead has narrowed in recent weeks, with an unusually high proportion of voters, between 30 and 40 per cent, still undecided.
Washington Weighs In
The international dimension of this campaign took an unexpected turn when U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that the Quebec election had contributed to the breakdown in trade negotiations. In comments directed at reporters in Washington, Lutnick accused Prime Minister Mark Carney of “manufacturing” a dispute over French-language requirements for political purposes.
The spat originated from Ottawa’s decision to walk away from talks partly over concerns related to French-language protections, including requirements for online streaming platforms. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, speaking to CBC News in both English and French, rejected the notion that his side would have allowed a deal to collapse over a language issue. “Do I care about how the Québécois speak? I mean, what could matter less to America? We don’t care,” Lutnick said, in remarks that are likely to provoke outrage across Quebec’s political spectrum.
Federal Minister Dominic LeBlanc, responsible for Canada-U.S. trade relations, responded by announcing that measures to protect the French language would not be subject to future American trade actions. The exchange has added another layer of complexity to an already fraught electoral environment, with all major parties now forced to consider how they would manage relations with an increasingly unpredictable neighbour.
Why it Matters
The outcome of this election will determine not only Quebec’s domestic priorities but also how the province positions itself within a rapidly changing North American order. With tariffs reshaping trade relationships and Washington taking an increasingly aggressive stance toward Canadian cultural protections, the next government will need to balance economic pragmatism with the defence of Quebec’s distinct identity. Whether voters reward the CAQ’s steady hand, embrace the PQ’s economic nationalism, or turn to other options will signal much about how Quebeckers view their place in a world where old certainties no longer apply. The sovereignty question, once the defining issue of Quebec politics, may prove to be a luxury the province can no longer afford to prioritise.
