The leader of Canada’s breadbasket province has delivered a pointed message to Ottawa: hit American liquor if you must, but keep your hands off the commodities that put food on global tables. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, speaking from Prince Albert this week, made clear his government will not countenance export levies on potash or crude oil — even as the federal government prepares its most aggressive counterstrike yet in the widening trade war with the United States.
Moe’s intervention comes at a precarious moment. Trade negotiations between Ottawa and Washington collapsed late last week, clearing the path for US President Donald Trump to impose sweeping 50 per cent tariffs on roughly US$20 billion worth of Canadian exports — alcohol chief among them. Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to match those measures dollar-for-dollar when they take effect on 8 September.
The Premier backs that strategy. But he is drawing a firm boundary around what Saskatchewan will tolerate.
A Red Line on Resources
Standing before reporters, Moe left no ambiguity about where his province stands.
“What we, as a province, can not and will not support is any kind of export tariff on our natural resources or any of our resources that are being exported to the U.S., or through the U.S. to other areas of the world,” he declared.
His concern is not abstract. Saskatchewan is on the cusp of supplying half the world’s potash — the potassium-rich mineral that sustains agricultural yields across continents. Slap a tariff on that, Moe warned, and American buyers will simply turn elsewhere. Belarus, he suggested, would be more than happy to fill the vacuum.
The same logic applies to oil. Moe echoed the long-held position of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith: weaponising crude exports would inflict unsustainable damage on both provinces and, by extension, the Canadian economy writ large.
“We can not, in any way, support the adding of export tariffs on a product like oil,” he said. “It would be an unsustainable hit to our Canadian economy and, in particular, our Saskatchewan and Alberta economy.”
Targeted Retaliation, Booze Excluded
While Moe draws a hard line on resources, he is fully behind Carney’s plan to hit back where it hurts — just not in ways that boomerang back on Canadian industry.
“We are supportive of these very intentional actions. But only when those tariffs are focused and targeted to have a minimal impact on Canadian industries and families – and a larger impact on our trading partner that we want to bring back to the table,” he said.
Starting 8 September, Saskatchewan will introduce a 50 per cent surcharge on American alcohol imports — a move that places it in unusual company. While most Canadian provinces have outright banned American liquor, Saskatchewan and Alberta have so far resisted that approach. Moe framed the new levy as a win for local distillers and brewers.
“It will be good for our Saskatchewan producers with domestic and local sales,” he noted.
The Road to Breakdown
The current standoff has its roots in trade talks that unravelled late on Friday. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in an interview with CBC News, pushed back against Canadian assertions that Washington had demanded veto power over Ottawa’s dealings with other countries. The discussions, he insisted, centred on building a “fortress North America” in sectors like steel, aluminium, and automobiles.
Greer also addressed concerns over Canadian cultural policy — specifically, measures pushing streaming platforms to promote French-language content. While the U.S. flagged the issue, he insisted it was never a dealbreaker.
“There is no way” the U.S. would have scuttled negotiations over that matter, he said.
But with no open channels of communication between the two governments, the path forward looks rocky. Greer suggested the U.S. stands ready to retaliate if Canada follows through on its threatened counter-tariffs. Ottawa has not flinched.
Ottawa Holds Its Cards Close
Federal Industry Minister Mélanie Joly, addressing reporters in Calgary on Wednesday morning, refused to be drawn on whether natural resources might eventually feature in Canada’s retaliation strategy.
“I know you would like me to answer in detail that question, but I also know that you know that I can’t. Because, of course, we don’t negotiate in public,” she said. “We’ve already made important decisions when it comes to countermeasures.”
That silence speaks volumes. Moe believes Ottawa has been negotiating in good faith on behalf of all provinces — but he is making sure his government’s red lines are heard loud and clear.
Why it Matters
Saskatchewan’s stance exposes a fault line running through Canada’s united front against Washington. With roughly six per cent of the provincial economy directly exposed to U.S. tariffs and approximately $1.6 billion worth of provincial imports set to be hit by Canadian counter-measures, Moe is gambling that disciplined, targeted retaliation can bring both sides back to the table without sacrificing the resource exports that keep the Prairies prosperous. Whether Ottawa respects those boundaries — or eventually decides that potash and oil are simply too powerful a lever to leave untouched — may well determine the shape of this trade war in the weeks ahead.
