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As Asia grapples with unprecedented heatwaves, a looming energy crisis is emerging, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions surrounding the US-Israeli conflict with Iran. With soaring temperatures pushing energy demand to record levels, countries like India face an alarming intersection of climate change and energy supply challenges, setting the stage for potential shortages as the hottest months approach.
Rising Temperatures Fuel Energy Demand
This May, parts of India sweltered under extreme heat, with temperatures soaring to a staggering 47°C in several states. This relentless heat has propelled electricity demand to unprecedented heights, reaching 271 gigawatts for four consecutive days—an amount previously anticipated as the maximum for the entire year. With three full months of summer still ahead, the situation is dire.
The heatwave has not been confined to India. Across Asia, cities are experiencing abnormal temperatures, with Seoul reaching 13 per cent above the long-term average, and Shanghai and Tokyo following suit. The ramifications of this enduring heat are profound, as the increased frequency and duration of hot days force populations to rely heavily on air conditioning.
Climate scientists warn that the duration of heatwaves is changing dramatically. In India, the number of heatwave days has increased by 0.44 days per decade since 1961, with the country experiencing a rise in “compound hot-humid days” from 14,086 between 2015 and 2019 to 16,970 between 2020 and 2024. A recent World Weather Attribution study suggests that climate change has tripled the likelihood of such extreme heat events, highlighting a troubling trend that could lead to even more severe energy shortages.
The Impact of Geopolitical Conflict
Compounding the energy crisis is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, specifically the US-Israeli military actions in Iran, which have severely disrupted oil and gas supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global energy shipments, has been effectively closed, impacting nations that rely heavily on imported energy—India being one of the largest.
Gas-fired power plants, which typically act as a buffer between solar energy production during the day and the coal-based electricity needed at night, are facing severe limitations. As liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies dwindle, India has been forced to ration gas, straining its already taxed energy grid. With Qatar, once a primary LNG supplier, reducing shipments significantly, India has scrambled to diversify its energy imports, increasing reliance on nations such as Oman and sourcing from the US, Australia, and beyond.
Amidst this turmoil, coal is stepping back into the spotlight. On May 21, thermal plants supplied over 62 per cent of the demand, as coal stocks fell below the government’s desired buffer levels. The energy ministry has had to instruct coal plants to postpone maintenance to meet the surging demand, further illustrating the precarious balance between energy needs and supply.
The Role of Air Conditioning in the Crisis
The surge in heat is directly correlated with an uptick in air conditioning usage, which now represents a significant portion of India’s energy consumption. Estimates suggest that air conditioning units are contributing between 60 to 70 gigawatts to peak demand, and this figure is expected to grow as urbanisation continues and temperatures rise.
India is adding between 10 to 15 million air conditioning units annually, with projections indicating that around 130 to 150 million could be in operation within the next decade. Without urgent policy interventions, air conditioning could account for over 30 per cent of the country’s peak demand by 2035, leading to increased pressure on an already struggling grid.
While the growth of renewable energy sources such as solar has provided some relief, particularly during daylight hours, the challenge remains stark. As solar generation declines after sunset, the reliance on coal and gas surges, exacerbating the climate crisis. Currently, India boasts around 6 gigawatts of battery storage capacity, far below the estimated need of 61 gigawatts by 2030, underscoring the urgency for investment in energy storage solutions.
Seeking Solutions Amidst Crisis
India’s renewable energy minister has called for a shift in electricity usage to daytime hours in a bid to decrease import dependency. The ongoing energy crisis presents an opportunity for transformative change. Research indicates that improving air conditioning efficiency could reduce peak demand significantly, providing both economic and environmental benefits.
The Bureau of Energy Efficiency has outlined plans to enhance AC efficiency standards by 2028. However, experts warn that without quick advancements in both renewable storage capabilities and efficiency improvements, each summer of record heat could lead to a reliance on coal, further deepening the climate crisis.
Why it Matters
The convergence of extreme heat and geopolitical instability highlights a critical juncture for energy policy and climate action in Asia. As nations grapple with the immediate impacts of rising temperatures and energy shortages, the underlying necessity for a sustainable transition to renewable energy becomes increasingly urgent. Failure to address these challenges could not only threaten energy security but also exacerbate the climate crisis, making it imperative for governments to act decisively and swiftly. The world is watching, and the stakes have never been higher.
