As the UK grapples with rising emissions and extreme weather events, renowned economist Lord Nicholas Stern argues that the recent backlash against climate action is, paradoxically, a sign of progress. Stern, who two decades ago authored a pivotal review on the economics of climate change, believes that despite significant challenges, the nation can still lead in green technology and sustainable development.
A Landmark Review
In 2006, Lord Stern was commissioned by then-Chancellor Gordon Brown to analyse the economic implications of climate change. The resulting Stern Review fundamentally altered the discourse surrounding climate issues, framing them not solely as environmental concerns but as pressing economic challenges. It posited that the costs of inaction far exceed the expenses of proactive measures, dubbing climate change “the greatest market failure the world has seen.”
The review catalysed significant shifts in UK and EU policy, paving the way for initiatives like carbon pricing and green investment. However, as Stern reflects on the past two decades, he acknowledges both progress and setbacks. While the price of green technology has decreased dramatically and the 2015 Paris Agreement provided a global framework for decarbonisation, emissions have continued to rise, and extreme weather is now an urgent reality.
Underestimating the Crisis
Stern expresses concern that predictions made in his original analysis have proven overly optimistic. “At the time, we were accused of being alarmist, but in fact, we understated the risks,” he asserts in a recent interview. The evidence, he notes, shows temperatures rising faster than anticipated. Instead of the predicted 0.2°C increase per decade, the UK’s local surface temperature has risen by approximately 1.4°C to 1.5°C since the late 19th century.
Despite these alarming trends, Stern highlights the unexpected advancements in low-carbon technologies, which have exceeded initial expectations. “Renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels, and electric vehicles are ushering in the end of the internal combustion engine era,” he explains. He believes that sectors historically resistant to decarbonisation, such as heavy industry and aviation, can also transition effectively with the right support and investment.
The Political Landscape
Amidst this complex backdrop, Stern points to a growing climate-sceptic lobby that poses significant challenges to net zero initiatives. With vocal critics emerging from both sides of the political spectrum, including figures like Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and former Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair, Stern warns that this pushback could undermine progress.
“The backlash we are witnessing is an inevitable part of the journey towards net zero,” he explains. He emphasises the need for advocates of decarbonisation to communicate the tangible benefits of this transition more effectively. “We must ensure that technologies like air-source heat pumps are accessible to everyone,” he urges, advocating for strategic investments in infrastructure to facilitate the shift.
Stern strongly opposes the notion of further drilling in the North Sea, arguing that it contradicts the UK’s energy security goals. “To achieve true energy security, we must accelerate our departure from fossil fuels,” he insists. He questions the rationale behind exploiting dwindling resources when the profits from such ventures are likely to flow overseas, rather than benefiting the UK economy.
Concerns Over Foreign Aid Cuts
Compounding these challenges is the UK government’s decision to reduce foreign aid, a move Stern criticises as short-sighted. “Cutting aid from 0.7% to 0.5% and now to 0.3% of Gross National Income is a major mistake,” he states. While these figures may seem minor in the context of the overall budget, their impact on the UK’s global standing and humanitarian efforts is profound.
With climate crises escalating worldwide, Stern argues that it is crucial to attract private investment in renewable energy and climate adaptation in developing regions. He is optimistic about new opportunities under Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s leadership, particularly with Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband’s commitment to enhancing the UK’s role at the World Bank. This could foster better access to capital for climate initiatives in countries deemed risky for investment.
A Persistent Advocate
At 80 years old, Stern remains resolute in his commitment to the climate agenda. He recently published a new book revisiting the principles of the Stern Review, reiterating that pursuing climate action is essential for sustainable and inclusive growth in the 21st century. His involvement in upcoming climate discussions, particularly at the COP32 conference in Ethiopia, underscores his dedication to addressing global environmental challenges.
Stern’s motivation is clear: “Not acting is profoundly dangerous,” he states. He emphasises the importance of achieving net zero not just for current generations but for the futures of his grandchildren, who will face the consequences of today’s decisions. “If we fail to make a difference now, we risk massive disruptions and loss of livelihoods for generations to come.”
Why it Matters
The discourse surrounding climate action is at a critical juncture. As the UK faces a backlash against its net zero strategy, it is imperative for both policymakers and advocates to recalibrate their approach. Stern’s insights highlight the urgency of investing in green technologies while ensuring that the benefits of decarbonisation are felt by all. This moment could define not only the UK’s climate strategy but also its leadership on the global stage as a champion for sustainable development.