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The political landscape across Europe is undergoing a seismic shift as recent analysis reveals that nearly 25% of voters are now aligning with far-right parties. This startling increase, nearly fivefold since the mid-1990s, reflects a broader trend of rising populism and anti-establishment sentiment that has escalated particularly in the past three years. This surge has led to significant electoral victories for such parties, marking a pivotal moment in European politics.
A Dramatic Rise in Far-Right Affiliation
Research conducted by over 150 political scientists across 31 nations indicates that the proportion of voters supporting far-right parties has surged to over 23%, a stark jump from about 10% just a decade prior and a mere 5% in 1995. The PopuList survey, spearheaded by Matthijs Rooduijn from the University of Amsterdam, highlights that nearly 30% of Europeans are now backing anti-establishment parties, a record high.
“When we commenced the PopuList initiative in 2018, our findings suggested that one in four Europeans voted for populist parties, primarily from the far-left and far-right,” Rooduijn noted. “Today, that figure has flipped, with one in four now supporting far-right parties, predominantly populist in nature. This marks a significant transformation.”
Historic Gains: A Snapshot of Electoral Success
The analysis reveals a particularly pronounced increase in far-right support between 2023 and 2025, with key national elections in countries such as France and the UK witnessing historic advancements for these factions. For instance, France’s National Rally (RN) surged from 19% to 37%, becoming the largest party in parliament, while Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) escalated from 16% to 29% in the same period. In the UK, Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, increased its vote share from 2% in 2019 to 14% in 2024.
Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) achieved a milestone in the 2025 elections, doubling its support from 10% to 21%, solidifying its position as the second-largest party in the nation. Meanwhile, far-right parties have formed governing coalitions in countries like Croatia, Italy, and Finland, and are leading in polls across Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, and the UK.
Factors Behind the Surge
Experts suggest a confluence of factors has propelled the rise of far-right parties. Firstly, voter attitudes towards key issues, especially immigration, have remained largely unchanged over time but have become increasingly pivotal in electoral choices. Secondly, the normalisation of far-right ideologies has created a self-reinforcing cycle, whereby their electoral success has led to greater acceptance, aided by mainstream parties integrating some of their rhetoric.
Moreover, these parties excel in narrative crafting, often framing their messages around a dichotomy of “us” versus “them”—casting immigrants and various elites as threats to the nation. This “heroes versus villains” narrative taps into emotions such as anger and pride, making their messaging resonate more deeply with disenchanted voters.
The Broader Implications of Far-Right Popularity
Despite some recent electoral setbacks for far-right factions, such as Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in the Netherlands suffering substantial losses, the overall trend remains upward. Rooduijn asserts that this shift has been decades in the making, now accelerating due to various socio-political dynamics.
The PopuList defines far-right parties as those espousing two primary ideologies: nativism and authoritarianism. Nativism promotes the notion that nations should be primarily inhabited by their native populations, often translating into hostility towards immigrants. Authoritarianism, on the other hand, advocates for a strict societal order, with severe penalties for perceived transgressions against authority.
Why it Matters
The escalating influence of far-right parties across Europe underscores a critical juncture in democratic governance. As these groups gain traction, they pose a significant challenge to liberal democratic norms, raising alarms about the potential erosion of civil liberties and the judiciary’s independence. The experiences of countries like Hungary and Poland demonstrate that the ascent of far-right populism can lead to the subversion of democratic principles, profoundly impacting societal cohesion and the rule of law. As this trend continues, the ramifications for Europe’s political fabric—and for democracy as a whole—could be profound and enduring.