As the shadows of Vladimir Putin’s regime stretch across Europe, a chilling pattern emerges: a series of assassination plots targeting Russian dissidents and supporters of Ukraine. Activists like Vladimir Osechkin, under constant police protection, live in the crosshairs of a government that has shown a disturbing willingness to eliminate its adversaries beyond its borders. The increasingly brazen tactics employed by Russian operatives signal not just a vendetta against individuals, but a broader strategy aimed at instilling fear among the Kremlin’s critics.
A Life Under Siege
Vladimir Osechkin, a prominent Russian activist and founder of a rights group advocating for prisoners, has found himself ensnared in a deadly game of cat and mouse since 2022. After French authorities warned of an assassination plot against him, Osechkin now requires a police escort for even the most mundane tasks, such as taking his children to school or grocery shopping. The urgency of his situation became starkly evident in April 2025 when men allegedly linked to the Kremlin were caught surveilling his home in southwestern France, gathering evidence for a potential hit.
Years earlier, Osechkin recounted a harrowing experience when he spotted a red dot on his wall, a moment he interpreted as the ominous targeting of a sniper’s laser sight. This incident is emblematic of a broader trend that has seen numerous Russian dissidents living in Europe facing similar threats.
A Widening Net of Fear
The threats against Osechkin are not isolated. Across the continent, authorities are uncovering an alarming series of plots orchestrated by Russian operatives. In 2024, Lithuanian officials disrupted attempts to assassinate both a Ukrainian supporter and a Russian dissident. Germany has also thwarted two significant plots: one aimed at a German arms manufacturer supplying Ukraine and another targeting a Ukrainian military official. In Poland, a man was arrested over a conspiracy to kill Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The murder of a Russian helicopter pilot who defected in Spain, with Russian operatives implicated in the crime, underscores the lethal reach of the Kremlin.
Three Western intelligence officials have confirmed a marked escalation in targeted killings since the onset of the Ukraine conflict, revealing a troubling shift in tactics. As one senior European intelligence official stated, “This campaign is not by accident or chance. There is political authorisation.” The implication is clear: the Kremlin is extending its lethal influence beyond military defectors to encompass a wider array of dissenters and foreign supporters of Ukraine.
The Costs of Defiance
For dissidents like Osechkin and his counterparts, the risks of remaining vocal are immense. Osechkin’s advocacy for human rights and investigation into Russian abuses in Ukraine have made him a prime target. He moved to France in 2015, seeking refuge, yet he faced renewed threats when his work drew the ire of Russian authorities. “If it weren’t for them, I probably would have been killed,” he confesses regarding the police protection he now relies upon.
Meanwhile, in Lithuania, Ruslan Gabbasov, who campaigns for independence for Bashkortostan, found an Apple AirTag hidden in his vehicle. The police warned him of an imminent threat, revealing that a killer had been apprehended near his home, poised to strike. Gabbasov declined offers from authorities to vanish, stating, “What difference does it make to them? They could kill me … or I could hide from everyone and stop engaging in political activity. That’s exactly what they want.”
Valdas Bartkevičius, another activist in Lithuania, faced a bomb plot against him that involved a device planted in his mailbox. Despite the dangers, he too rejected the notion of disappearing, equating it to a “social death.”
A New Era of Proxy Warfare
The Russian state’s shift towards using proxies in assassination attempts can be traced back to past incidents, such as the 2018 poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal in Salisbury. Following that attack, Western nations expelled numerous Russian diplomats, complicating the Kremlin’s operations in Europe. The current wave of thwarted plots suggests that while Moscow may be struggling to carry out operations directly, the threats remain ever-present.
The recent arrests of individuals connected to these plots reveal a disturbing trend: many are linked to Russian organised crime and have been implicated in other acts of sabotage across Europe. The chilling reality is that the Kremlin’s operatives can still reach their targets if they truly desire, and the fear they instill serves dual purposes: to silence dissent and to drain resources from European law enforcement.
Why it Matters
The increasing frequency and audacity of assassination plots against Russian dissidents in Europe is more than just a political issue; it is a stark reminder of the lengths to which authoritarian regimes will go to eliminate opposition. As these threats escalate, they not only endanger lives but also undermine the very principles of democracy, freedom, and human rights. The courage displayed by individuals like Osechkin, Gabbasov, and Bartkevičius in the face of such peril is a testament to their resolve, yet it lays bare the precariousness of dissent in a world increasingly dominated by fear and intimidation.
