In just two weeks, the Makerfield constituency will be thrust into the political spotlight as voters prepare for a by-election that could have significant implications for the UK’s political landscape. Triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons, this contest features a diverse slate of candidates vying for a seat that has long been a Labour stronghold. With polls indicating a close race between Labour’s Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, the outcome could herald a shift in party dynamics and leadership debates within Parliament.
The Candidates
Andy Burnham (Labour)
Andy Burnham, the former cabinet minister and current Mayor of Manchester, is positioning his campaign as a chance for constituents to instigate change within the Labour Party. His candidacy was sparked by the resignation of his ally, Josh Simons, following disappointing local election results that prompted calls for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation. Burnham aims to demonstrate that he can effectively challenge Reform UK and potentially reshape the party’s future direction.
In a recent poll, Burnham led Kenyon by a narrow margin of three points. He emphasised that his return to Parliament would not signify a return to “business as usual,” asserting that it would compel Westminster to pay closer attention to areas often overlooked.
Robert Kenyon (Reform UK)
Representing Reform UK is Robert Kenyon, a local plumber who has adopted a confrontational stance, referring to Burnham as the “King of the North.” Kenyon previously ran in the 2024 general election, losing by a mere 5,399 votes but demonstrating significant local support as his party swept all wards in the recent local elections.
However, Kenyon’s campaign has been marred by controversy, following the emergence of derogatory online comments attributed to him, including sexist remarks and controversial political views. While his party has downplayed these comments as “locker room banter,” critics argue they reflect a troubling attitude that could alienate voters.
Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain)
Rebecca Shepherd, aged 53, is the candidate for Restore Britain, a party seeking to expand its influence beyond its traditional base in Great Yarmouth. Party leader Rupert Lowe has praised Shepherd for her understanding of local business challenges and commitment to community interests. The party’s recent polling success suggests it may fracture the right-wing vote, potentially complicating the dynamics for the main contenders.
Despite gaining traction, Shepherd’s exclusion from the BBC’s Question Time special has sparked criticism, with Lowe asserting that the decision does not represent the party’s growing support.
Sarah Wakefield (Green Party)
The Green Party, buoyed by a successful by-election earlier this year, will be represented by Sarah Wakefield, a Manchester city councillor. Wakefield aims to convey a message of hope and improvement, stating that the future can be “better and fairer” than the current status quo. However, her candidacy faced internal party challenges, including the resignation of a previous candidate over anti-Semitic comments.
Michael Winstanley (Conservative) and Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats)
The Conservative candidate, Michael Winstanley, a former mayor of Wigan, faces an uphill battle in a constituency that has shown minimal support for his party in early polling. He has expressed concerns that residents feel like “political pawns” in the current contest and has pledged to provide an authentic voice for the community in Westminster.
Councillor Jake Austin represents the Liberal Democrats, promoting a vision for local representation distinct from both Labour and Reform UK. He has reiterated the need to address pressing issues such as the cost of living and environmental protection.
Why it Matters
The Makerfield by-election is more than just a local contest; it represents a potential turning point in British politics. A victory for Labour could bolster Andy Burnham’s bid for leadership within the party, especially in light of internal dissent regarding Sir Keir Starmer. Conversely, a win for Reform UK would not only signify a dramatic shift in voter sentiment but could also signal the beginning of a broader collapse of Labour’s historical strongholds. As political parties recalibrate their strategies in response to the outcomes, the implications could resonate well beyond Makerfield, shaping the future of British governance and party politics.
