Australia’s home affairs minister, Tony Burke, has warned that slashing net overseas migration would damage public services and the economy, even as business groups warn that existing skills shortages are already worsening despite high immigration. Speaking at the National Press Club, Burke argued that Labor’s existing migration settings can be made to work better rather than pursuing dramatic cuts, a stance that earned immediate backing from employer organisations. He reiterated the government’s forecast of 225,000 net overseas migrants by 2027‑28, contrasting it with the more aggressive targets put forward by One Nation and the Coalition.
Business Backing for a Targeted System
Bran Black, chief executive of the Business Council of Australia, welcomed the government’s effort to “restore integrity to the migration system”. He stressed that the starting point for policy should be the economy’s genuine needs, not an arbitrary number to cut. Black pointed out that almost one in three occupations nationwide are currently short of workers, affecting housing construction, hospital care, aged‑care services, infrastructure projects and the energy transition.
He said: “The starting point for migration policy should not be a number to cut to, but what our economy genuinely needs.”
Black also added: “Almost one in three occupations in this country are short of workers right now. That translates to not enough workers building homes, caring for us in hospitals and aged care homes, delivering infrastructure and powering the energy transition. That is the challenge that any migration policy should be looking to solve.”
Populist Pledges and the Risks of Cutting Numbers
Burke warned that promises to dramatically lower net overseas migration would “trash Australian services and trash the Australian economy”. He noted that One Nation has committed to a yearly intake of 130,000, while the Coalition favours a range between 150,000 and 170,000. By contrast, the government’s forecast remains at 225,000 for 2027‑28.
He said: “The lower [Nom] levels will trash Australian services and trash the Australian economy.”
Burke also highlighted the importance of family ties for skilled migrants, observing that half of arriving doctors and construction workers bring family members, and two‑thirds of nurses and aged‑care workers do the same. He argued that restricting family reunification would not free up additional visas but would instead deter essential workers from coming to Australia.
He said: “The proportion of doctors who come to Australia with family attached to their application? 50%. How many construction workers come with family attached to their application? 50%. How many nurses and aged care workers come with family attached to their application? Two‑thirds.”
Expert View on the Government’s Strategy
Alan Gamlen, director of the ANU’s migration hub, described Burke’s announcements as a well‑considered response to long‑term structural issues rather than a knee‑jerk reaction to populist pressure. He said the measures avoid the trap of chasing a simple net migration figure while still giving the government tools to manage an unchecked temporary visa system.
Gamlen remarked: “They don’t seem to have fallen into the trap of chasing a net migration number,” and added, “Burke made it pretty clear, and in a convincing way, that this is the result of a well‑considered process that has been going on for a while and which addresses long‑term structural issues, rather than just a kneejerk response to One Nation.”
He concluded with: “Let’s see if this lets out some of the hot air in the migration debate.”
Budget Forecasts and Housing Pressures
Burke also addressed the way net overseas migration is often treated as a budget target, suggesting that the government needs additional levers to meet its forecast amid current housing challenges. He insisted that the forecast is not merely a number to hit but a reflection of the country’s genuine labour requirements.
He said: “Net overseas migration has been viewed as a budget forecast. Last couple of years, people have talked about it as a budget target,” and continued, “That is a very different way of looking at it. But given that we have the challenges we have with housing in Australia at the moment, I do think we need to be able to have these additional tools to make sure that what is published and forecast is reached.”
Why it Matters
Burke’s defence of a measured migration policy comes at a moment when businesses across Australia are reporting severe skills shortages despite historically high immigration levels. By rejecting populist calls for drastic cuts and emphasizing the economic necessity of migrant labour — particularly in health, construction and aged care — the government aims to balance public concern over migration with the concrete needs of a growing economy. Whether this approach can quell the heated debate and deliver the forecasted intake remains to be seen, but the endorsement from major employer groups signals that, for now, the business community sees merit in a strategy that prioritises labour market needs over arbitrary numerical targets.