Toronto and Montreal are gearing up for significant school closures, a situation driven not by declining birth rates or evolving political agendas, but rather by a pressing lack of family-friendly housing. As a result, these major cities may soon mirror Vancouver, where only a small fraction of residents are young children. The trend of losing schools occurs when the number of students departing exceeds those entering, making the decline in young children a critical early warning sign for urban centres.
A Shifting Demographic Landscape
The implications for Toronto and Montreal are concerning. The dwindling number of children threatens not only their social fabric but also their economic vitality, potentially leading to a cycle of decline. Cities such as Calgary, Edmonton, and Ottawa, on the other hand, are thriving, showcasing a stark contrast to the struggles faced by these two metropolises.
While Canada’s birth rates have decreased, the population of children under five has remained stable over the past 15 years. However, where these nearly two million children reside has shifted dramatically, with 35,000 fewer living in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and metro Montreal compared to 2010. The primary driver of this decline is the outmigration of young families seeking better opportunities elsewhere.
The trend of outmigration from Toronto and Montreal is not new. For the first decade of the 21st century, these cities experienced a net loss of around 40,000 residents annually to other parts of Canada. This trend began to escalate in 2015, doubling by 2019 and further accelerating during the early pandemic years. Currently, the net loss remains over 100,000 each year, predominantly affecting those under 45. A significant factor in this outflow is the soaring cost of housing.
The Struggles of Affordability
Two decades ago, purchasing an entry-level family home in the GTA was achievable for young couples, as it typically cost less than five times their combined income. Today, the situation has dramatically shifted, with prices soaring to over 12 times the income of such households. Notably, a 2024 Ipsos poll revealed that approximately 75% of GTA residents aged under 35 are contemplating leaving in search of more affordable housing.
The affordability crisis is compounded by a marked decline in the construction of family-sized homes. In 2003, 30% of all new townhouse and detached housing starts in Canada were located in the GTA and metro Montreal, accounting for a total of 46,000 starts. Fast forward to 2013, this figure plummeted to 20,000, and last year it fell below 10,000, representing less than 11% of the national total.
Policy Decisions and their Consequences
The reduction in family-friendly housing options can be traced back to a series of policy choices made by provincial and municipal governments, which have prioritised high-rise apartment and condominium developments. Land-use restrictions, such as urban growth boundaries and greenbelts, have stymied outward expansion, while zoning regulations have limited the construction of more diverse housing types. This has effectively left high-rise buildings as the predominant solution.
While there is no denying the necessity for a variety of housing options, including purpose-built rentals, the economics surrounding high-rise developments often lead to smaller units ill-suited for families.
However, the trends observed in Toronto and Montreal are not indicative of a nationwide phenomenon. In fact, cities like Calgary, Edmonton, and Ottawa have successfully managed to attract families by continuing to construct child-friendly homes, thanks to more lenient land-use policies and reasonable taxation frameworks. In Ottawa, much of the growth in new developments has occurred outside the city limits, further highlighting the challenges faced by urban centres.
The Importance of Community
Efforts by cities such as Toronto and Montreal to create vibrant, walkable neighbourhoods with effective transit systems are commendable. Yet, these initiatives are fundamentally undermined if families cannot afford to live in these areas. The reality is stark: no amount of urban planning will retain families if they are priced out of their communities.
The potential consequences of this trend are severe. As the number of children declines, schools and daycare centres are forced to close, which in turn diminishes the family-friendly nature of neighbourhoods. Families, even those who can afford to reside in these areas, may choose to leave, further exacerbating the issue. This cycle could foster a bleak future for both cities.
Why it Matters
The vitality of urban centres hinges on the presence of middle-class families with young children. Without them, cities struggle to sustain their economic, social, and cultural ecosystems. A community that cannot provide affordable living conditions for families is destined for decline, potentially leading to a future where vibrant cities are replaced by hollowed-out shells. The need for immediate action in addressing housing affordability and family-friendly development is critical to ensure the survival of these urban landscapes.
