Toronto’s housing market has experienced a notable shift as home sales rebounded in March, marking the first increase in activity since last autumn. Buyers have seized the opportunity presented by declining prices, with the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reporting 4,546 transactions last month—a 1.4 per cent rise from February. However, despite this positive movement, sales remain significantly lower than historical averages.
Sales Climb but Remain Below Average
The increase in sales activity comes after a prolonged period of stagnation, with the last notable rise occurring between August and September 2025. During that time, more buyers entered the market, driven by reduced mortgage rates. Currently, however, the market is still operating at a fraction of its potential; March’s sales figures were 52 per cent below the ten-year average for the month.
Economic challenges, including the ongoing U.S. trade war and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, have left many potential buyers hesitant. Jason Mercer, TRREB’s Chief Information Officer, noted that uncertainty in the trade landscape is keeping many would-be purchasers on the sidelines. “Many remain cautious, awaiting clearer signals regarding economic stability and the effects of international tensions,” he stated in an email.
Home Prices Continue to Decline
Toronto’s home prices have been on a downward trajectory for over a year, with the home price index—an essential gauge of property values—remaining below the $1 million mark since April 2025. As of last month, the index stood at $928,000, reflecting a 0.6 per cent drop from February and a significant 7 per cent decrease compared to March 2025. This downward trend is evident across all property types within Toronto and its neighbouring suburbs.
The region’s condominiums have seen the steepest declines, with prices falling 9.6 per cent year-over-year. In York Region, located north of Toronto, the condo price index has plummeted by 13.5 per cent, while Durham, to the east, has recorded an 11.2 per cent decrease. Conversely, detached homes have fared slightly better, with a 7 per cent decline in value across the Toronto area over the past year.
New Listings Rise Slightly
Interestingly, the number of homeowners listing their properties for sale has increased, with new listings up by 1.2 per cent from February to March. This marks a recovery after a substantial 11.5 per cent drop in the previous month. TRREB reports that sales outpaced the increase in new listings, although it remains to be seen whether this trend signals the start of a broader recovery in the Toronto real estate sector.
However, as the Middle Eastern conflict continues to influence global markets, mortgage rates are beginning to climb again, potentially affecting affordability and buyer sentiment in the coming months.
Why it Matters
The fluctuations in Toronto’s housing market highlight the delicate balance between buyer confidence and economic uncertainty. While the recent uptick in sales suggests a glimmer of hope, the overarching trends of declining prices and rising mortgage costs could pose significant challenges for both buyers and sellers. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for stakeholders in the real estate market, as they navigate a landscape shaped by both local and international factors. As the situation develops, it will be essential to monitor how these economic pressures impact consumer behaviour and market stability in the months ahead.
