Recent satellite data reveals a significant slowdown in tropical deforestation, with global losses decreasing by about a third compared to the previous year, primarily due to enhanced conservation efforts in Brazil and other nations. However, experts warn that the looming El Niño weather pattern could jeopardise these gains by exacerbating fire risks.
A Positive Shift in Deforestation Rates
In 2025, the world lost approximately 43,000 square kilometres (17,000 square miles) of old-growth tropical forests, a reduction of 36% compared to record losses in 2024. This decline is encouraging, yet it underscores an unsettling reality: tropical forests—vital ecosystems that support countless species—are still disappearing at an alarming rate compared to a decade ago.
The World Resources Institute and the University of Maryland conducted an analysis that pointed to the temporary relief provided by cooler La Niña conditions in 2025, which curtailed the unprecedented wildfires that had ravaged forests the previous year. Enhanced forest protection measures in countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Malaysia have also played a pivotal role in this positive trend.
Elizabeth Goldman, co-director of Global Forest Watch at the World Resources Institute, stated, “It’s incredibly encouraging to see the decline in 2025. This highlights how political will and leadership focused on forest conservation can yield tangible results.”
Brazil Takes the Lead in Conservation
Brazil, home to the Amazon rainforest—the largest tropical forest on the planet—has demonstrated the effectiveness of stronger environmental policies. Excluding fire-related losses, the country reported the lowest deforestation figures since analysis began in 2002, with approximately 5,700 square kilometres (2,200 square miles) of forests lost last year.
Despite this progress, pressure from agriculture, logging, and climate change continues to threaten these vital ecosystems. Tropical rainforests are not only essential for biodiversity but also play a significant role in sequestering carbon dioxide, helping to mitigate climate change.
As Rod Taylor, the global director of forest and nature conservation at the World Resources Institute, remarked, “Forests are well equipped to cope with normal climate. However, with the new intense fires and droughts, we really have to think about how to make forests more resilient.”
The Looming Threat of El Niño
While the current data presents a hopeful picture, scientists caution that the upcoming El Niño phase could severely impact forest health. This weather phenomenon, known for causing extreme weather conditions, could increase the likelihood of wildfires, potentially reversing recent gains in forest conservation.
Prof. Matthew Hansen from the University of Maryland warned, “Climate change and land clearing have shortened the fuse on global forest fires. Without urgent action to manage fire more effectively, we risk pushing the world’s most important forests past recovery.”
The potential for intensified fires is not limited to tropical regions. In Europe, a recent report from the EU’s Copernicus climate service highlighted how climate change has driven extreme heatwaves and wildfires across the continent. Last year, over 10,000 square kilometres (4,000 square miles) burned, a stark illustration of the widespread threat posed by climate change.
A Broader Call to Action
The international community has committed to halting and reversing forest loss by 2030, as pledged during the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow in 2021. Yet, current trajectories suggest that achieving this goal will require substantial and immediate action.
As we look forward, the intersection of climate change and forest management becomes increasingly critical. Protecting these ecosystems is not merely an environmental issue; it is integral to global health, biodiversity, and climate stability.
Why it Matters
The recent slowdown in deforestation offers a glimmer of hope, demonstrating that concerted efforts can yield positive results. However, the threat posed by El Niño and climate change is a stark reminder of the fragility of these ecosystems. The world must urgently enhance its commitment to forest conservation, recognising that the fate of our planet’s biodiversity and climate stability hangs in the balance. Without proactive measures, the progress made in recent years could be quickly undone, with devastating consequences for the environment and future generations.
