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In a significant development in the ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran, former President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that a peace agreement with Iran has been “largely negotiated.” This revelation, made via his social media platform, follows discussions involving a Pakistani mediator and various Gulf nations, indicating a potential resolution to hostilities that began in February. The proposed deal aims to reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global maritime trade.
Details of the Proposed Agreement
Trump’s post outlined that the final touches of a “Memorandum of Understanding” are still being finalised, with an announcement expected imminently. The former president noted that the strait would be under Iranian control as part of the agreement, a point that has raised eyebrows given the geopolitical implications of such a concession.
According to a report from the Pakistani news agency, Iran and Pakistan have jointly submitted a modified proposal to the United States, which is expected to include a formal declaration to end the war and a two-month negotiation period regarding Iran’s nuclear programme. The plan also aims to lift the US blockade on Iranian ports, facilitating the reopening of the strait.
Tensions Surrounding Negotiations
Despite the hopeful tone of Trump’s announcement, tensions remain high. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hinted at possible significant news during his recent visit to India, even as Trump maintained a hardline stance, suggesting that further strikes against Iran could be imminent if a satisfactory agreement is not reached. Trump emphasised the need for the United States to secure all its demands before signing any deal, reiterating that he will not accept terms that do not favour US interests.
The complex web of negotiations has involved multiple regional leaders, including those from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey, with Trump also indicating successful discussions with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. However, the specifics of the negotiations remain vague, with Trump’s comments reflecting a balancing act between diplomatic engagement and military readiness.
Iranian Response and Concerns
Iran’s top negotiator has stated unequivocally that the nation will not compromise on its sovereign rights. During a meeting with Pakistan’s army chief in Tehran, he confirmed that the proposed framework encompasses 14 clauses aimed at establishing a foundation for future discussions. Meanwhile, Iranian media, particularly outlets associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have cast doubt on Trump’s optimistic portrayal, asserting that the strait’s management will remain firmly under Iranian authority.
Reports suggest that should a deal materialise, it could halt hostilities in Iran and Lebanon and potentially release approximately $25 billion in Iranian assets currently frozen abroad. However, the full extent of Iran’s demands—such as the release of frozen assets and compensation for wartime damages—remains unclear.
Republican Reaction and Political Implications
The prospect of a peace deal has sparked discontent among Republican hawks who have long advocated for a more aggressive stance against Iran. Mike Pompeo, a former CIA director and Secretary of State, characterised the terms of the proposed agreement as alarmingly similar to those negotiated during the Obama administration. He condemned the potential deal as a means to empower Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, urging instead for a more combative approach to curtail Iran’s influence.
Contrary to Pompeo’s views, former negotiators from the Obama administration have expressed a willingness to accept a deal that could end the conflict and alleviate the ensuing humanitarian crisis, highlighting the complex and often contradictory nature of US foreign policy in the region.
Why it Matters
The unfolding negotiations between the US and Iran, facilitated by Pakistan, represent a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern diplomacy. The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for global oil supplies—could reshape economic relations and security dynamics in the region. Should these talks succeed, it may not only bring an end to the current conflict but also alter the trajectory of US-Iran relations for years to come. However, the deeply entrenched opposition from hardliners on both sides poses a significant challenge, underscoring the fragility of peace in a historically volatile region.
