Premier Christine Fréchette cast United States President Donald Trump as her principal adversary on Thursday as she formally launched a 39-day provincial election campaign, branding the trade confrontation with Washington the defining crisis of the contest and pushing the long-running sovereignty question to the margins.
Speaking in Quebec City, the Coalition Avenir Québec leader invoked the language of siege. “This election will be like no other. The world has changed. In fact, what we thought was a fog has just turned into a storm,” Ms. Fréchette declared. “We’re under full-scale attack, like never before, from our main economic partner.” Her remarks came less than a week after Canada-U.S. trade negotiations collapsed, triggering 50 per cent tariffs on roughly $28-billion worth of Canadian exports. Ottawa has pledged dollar-for-dollar countermeasures set to take effect on 8 September.
The campaign’s opening salvo laid bare how thoroughly Trump-era trade frictions have reshaped the political terrain in la belle province — and how secondary the once-dominant question of Quebec independence has become.
A Referendum Put on the Back Burner
Barely mentioned on Thursday was the third sovereignty referendum promised by the Parti Québécois, which has led in opinion polls for the better part of three years. PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon pledged last week that he would not stage a vote on independence until Mr. Trump leaves office in 2029 — a striking concession that recasts the sovereignty movement’s timeline around the rhythms of American politics.
During his campaign launch in Montreal, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon made only a glancing reference to his plan for a referendum within a first mandate. He trained his fire instead on the governing CAQ’s record. “After two terms with a majority government, the Legault-Fréchette duo has unfortunately led us to the brink of the precipice,” he charged, touting his economic team as best equipped to navigate the tariff standoff.
Marc André Bodet, a political scientist at Laval University, said the PQ’s strategy was deliberate. “You would expect the whole campaign to start with a debate about ‘Are we going to have a referendum or not?'” he observed. “And that doesn’t seem to be the case.” Support for sovereignty has hovered stubbornly around 30 per cent and has actually dipped since Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, a reminder that the sovereigntist flame, never extinguished, has dimmed.
Ms. Fréchette seized on that vulnerability. “On Oct. 5, you’ll have a choice to make: a government that works full-time for your priorities or a government that will work part-time because it’s too busy preparing for its referendum,” she warned.
Fréchette’s Balancing Act
Ms. Fréchette, who succeeded François Legault in April, faces a delicate task: distancing herself from her predecessor’s eight-year legacy while inheriting its machinery. Campaign signage bears no mention of the Coalition Avenir Québec name — a deliberate rebranding — and the Premier asked voters for what she called “a first mandate for a Fréchette government.”
The CAQ’s standing crumbled in recent years under Mr. Legault’s leadership but has recovered modestly since Ms. Fréchette took over. Critics, however, accuse her of weaponising Mr. Trump’s tariffs to distract from domestic shortcomings. “The CAQ is the queen of political theatre,” charged Quebec Liberal Leader Charles Milliard, whose party, the Official Opposition, has struggled to claw back francophone support outside Montreal since he assumed the leadership in February.
The Premier struck a notably softer tone than her predecessor on federal-provincial relations, declaring herself ready to work with Ottawa “when it’s good for Quebec” — a marked departure from the combative posture that defined the Legault years.
Washington Wades Into the Campaign
The trade dispute has spilled directly into the campaign. On Thursday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick alleged that Prime Minister Mark Carney had “manufactured” a dispute over French-language requirements for political purposes — claims he said were tied to the Quebec election. “Do I care about how the Québécois speak? I mean, what could matter less to America? We don’t care,” Mr. Lutnick told reporters in Washington.
Mr. Carney had cited U.S. concerns about French-language protections, including those governing online streaming platforms, as one reason he directed negotiators to walk away from the table. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, in a Wednesday interview with CBC News conducted in English and French, dismissed the notion that his side would have allowed talks to collapse over a language issue.
Dominic LeBlanc, the federal minister responsible for Canada-U.S. trade, responded via social media that he welcomed assurances that measures to protect the French language “will not be subject to future U.S. trade actions” — a development that may complicate the CAQ’s narrative of relentless American hostility.
A Crowded, Unpredictable Race
Quebeckers will head to the polls on 5 October in a contest Prof. Bodet describes as unusually volatile. The PQ remains likely to capture the most seats, but five parties appear poised to win representation, and the share of undecided voters sits at an extraordinary 30 to 40 per cent. The Quebec Conservatives, currently holding a single seat, are eyeing breakthroughs in the regions surrounding Quebec City, while Québec Solidaire, trailing in the polls, will fight to preserve its existing handful of ridings.
Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon, pressed by reporters, insisted he had been transparent about his referendum plans and that Quebeckers now wanted to hear positions on other issues. The PQ released its full independence blueprint earlier this summer, effectively laying its sovereigntist cards on the table before the writs dropped.
Ms. Fréchette’s gambit is straightforward: frame the election as a referendum on leadership in a trade war rather than a debate over Quebec’s constitutional future. Whether voters accept that framing — or simply opt for the devil they don’t know — will determine not only who governs, but how Quebec defines itself in an era of American economic coercion.
Why it Matters
This election is a stress test for federalism, identity, and economic sovereignty in North America. By allowing the Trump tariff crisis to overshadow the sovereignty debate, Quebec’s political class has tacitly acknowledged that the existential threat to the province’s prosperity no longer comes from within Canada but from across its southern border. A PQ victory would not halt the campaign against Trump — but it would reignite a constitutional argument that most Quebeckers, for now, appear unwilling to relaunch. The outcome on 5 October will signal whether la belle province sees its future in closer continental integration, sovereigntist reinvention, or pragmatic resistance from within Confederation.
