The United States is bracing for a cascade of extreme weather as a potentially historic El Niño builds, yet the nation’s premier climate science body is being stripped of the people, data and tools needed to forecast and respond. Former officials and scientists warn that sweeping staff reductions, grant terminations and budget slashes at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have left the agency stretched thin, jeopardising public safety and global climate monitoring.
Trump’s assault on NOAA
Since the start of his second term, the administration has targeted the agency that has long been regarded as a world‑leading centre for climate research. Roughly 20 % of the workforce has vanished since January 2025, with more than 3 000 employees lost in what is described as the steepest staffing drop in a decade. The National Weather Service, housed within NOAA, has seen hundreds of meteorological and technical posts remain unfilled across its 122 forecast offices. “The system has not really been tested since all the cuts happened,” says Tom Di Liberto, a former NOAA climate scientist who now serves as media director for Climate Central. That test may now be imminent.
The looming El Niño threat
This year’s super El Niño, characterised by unusually warm equatorial sea‑surface temperatures, is already off the charts and expected to intensify through the northern hemisphere’s autumn and winter. The phenomenon promises dangerous temperature spikes, more powerful storms across the American West, and a rise in California’s sea level of up to a foot. It also sets the stage for debris flows, landslides and flash floods. “Whether we as a country can handle the kind of coast‑to‑coast extremes that could potentially happen this winter is a big question,” Di Liberto warns. The agency that provides early‑warning systems for tsunamis, monitors seafood supply chains and supplies ocean data for safe shipping is now struggling to meet that challenge.
Staffing crisis and research gaps
The hollowing out of NOAA has manifested in delayed weather‑balloon launches, leaving parts of the Great Plains unprepared for tornadoes and limiting warnings to rural Alaskan communities that were already displaced by floods earlier this year. The Government Accountability Office found that multilingual weather alerts have been curtailed, putting roughly 26 million Americans at heightened risk. “There’s no time to do anything other than the very basics,” observes Dr Anna Zivian, a climate researcher and policy expert. “I suspect we haven’t seen the worst outcomes from the loss of capacity yet.”
Budget cuts have not been limited to personnel. The Trump administration terminated dozens of grants, wiping out more than $28 million in funding for states, cities, non‑profits and universities. Climate‑research awards in fiscal year 2026 fell 37 % below the 2021‑2024 average, according to Grant Witness. The proposed $1.6 billion reduction for NOAA next year represents a 26 % cut, while roughly $6 billion has been stripped from a planned satellite investment that would have advanced future weather predictions. Funding for a decade‑long ocean‑monitoring programme using autonomous biogeochemical‑argo floats is also set to expire at the end of October.
Global implications and the way forward
The repercussions extend far beyond US borders. Scientists and forecasters worldwide rely on NOAA’s satellites, studies and data‑sharing arrangements that track severe weather across Europe, coordinate disaster response in the Caribbean and monitor deforestation in the Amazon. “I worry about loss of life and about our inability to be protected at a time when we need our government the most,” says Monica Medina, a former principal deputy administrator of NOAA. The erosion of these capabilities threatens international efforts to understand and mitigate the climate crisis.
Despite the challenges, some officials argue that new technologies are helping to offset losses. “NOAA has never been more equipped to study, prepare for and respond to an ENSO event,” a agency spokesperson noted, highlighting updated modelling tools and the use of uncrewed systems. Rick Spinrad, a former NOAA administrator, acknowledges that technological advances have boosted data collection, yet he cautions that the administration’s actions “suggest that we cannot and will not sustain those capabilities.” He asks whether the nation is at a turning point.
The El Niño season also represents a missed learning opportunity. In the last strong event a decade ago, NOAA deployed planes, weather balloons, unmanned aircraft and a research ship to gather data. This year, only a handful of unmanned watercraft will venture into the Pacific, according to a September report by NPR. Experts stress that preparation for such events occurs during the off‑season, and the current staffing shortages are hampering that essential work.
Why it Matters
The combined impact of staff reductions, grant terminations and budget slashes threatens not only American lives but also the global scientific community’s ability to anticipate and mitigate extreme weather. As the world faces a hotter, more unpredictable climate, the United States’ weakened capacity to forecast and respond could set a dangerous precedent, undermining international cooperation and leaving vulnerable populations exposed to heightened risk. The current trajectory suggests that without swift reversal of these cuts, the nation may be ill‑prepared for the severe weather events that are now on the horizon, with consequences that ripple far beyond its borders.
