In a significant escalation of military engagement in the Middle East, the United States and Saudi Arabia jointly executed air strikes against Iran-backed paramilitary groups in Iraq on Wednesday. This action comes on the heels of President Donald Trump’s vow to retaliate against Iran for its recent missile strikes on US military installations in Jordan and vessels in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The situation, already fraught with tension, has the potential to further destabilise the region and impact global oil markets.
Joint Strikes and Escalating Hostilities
The coordinated strikes mark a pivotal moment, as this is the first time Saudi Arabia has publicly participated in military actions alongside the US in such a capacity. According to reports, at least 20 members of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) were killed, and 32 others sustained injuries during the assaults on several bases across the country. The PMF, which consists of powerful Iran-aligned paramilitary groups integrated into Iraq’s security forces, reacted vehemently, with demonstrators in Mosul chanting anti-American slogans and carrying the bodies of deceased fighters.
President Trump asserted that the strikes were a direct response to drone attacks on Saudi oil installations originating from Iraqi territory. This military action represents the first substantial US offensive in the Middle East since Trump unexpectedly halted a bombing campaign just days prior, following advice from military commanders indicating the initiative had outlived its usefulness.
Iraq’s Government Responds
In the aftermath of the air strikes, Iraq’s Shi’ite-led government convened an emergency meeting, urging all parties to de-escalate tensions. The Iraqi presidency condemned the attacks, labelling them an “unacceptable violation” of the nation’s sovereignty and emphasising the need to prevent armed groups from instigating further conflicts with Iraq’s neighbours. While Trump claimed that the US had coordinated these actions with the Iraqi government, Baghdad refrained from confirming this cooperation, asserting that only its government holds the authority to respond to incursions on its territory.
Iran has denounced the strikes, characterising them as an attempt by the US and Israel to extend their conflict throughout the region. Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, a prominent Iran-backed group in Iraq, threatened that US and Saudi forces would face severe consequences for their actions.
Oil Prices Surge Amidst Conflict
As tensions escalate, oil prices have reacted sharply, with Brent crude futures soaring by over 7%, surpassing $90 a barrel. This rise reverses the earlier downturn experienced earlier in the week when Trump announced the suspension of US strikes. The ongoing conflict continues to disrupt energy supply routes, casting a long shadow over the global oil market.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have positioned themselves as a formidable presence in the Strait of Hormuz, recently firing missiles at US military locations in Jordan and targeting oil tankers navigating the strait. In a significant show of military strength, Jordan’s military reported intercepting five Iranian missiles aimed at US troops stationed in the area.
Diplomatic Efforts and Regional Implications
Attempts to establish a diplomatic resolution have stumbled, particularly regarding the management of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil shipments. Oman, supported by Gulf nations, proposed a joint control plan for the strait, which Iran swiftly dismissed as “unreasonable.” Iranian officials maintain that they seek sole control of the inbound shipping route, complicating efforts for a collaborative solution.
The backdrop of these military actions is highlighted by the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Iranian pilgrims in Iraq for annual commemorations, underscoring the intricate ties between the two nations. As Iraq finds itself caught between two powerful adversaries, the potential for domestic unrest looms large, particularly concerning its Iran-backed paramilitary factions.
Why it Matters
The recent military strikes by the US and Saudi Arabia against Iran-backed forces in Iraq signify a dangerous escalation in an already volatile region. This development not only threatens to widen the conflict but also risks destabilising Iraq further, potentially leading to increased sectarian violence and complicating diplomatic efforts. Moreover, with oil prices already on edge, the ramifications of this conflict extend beyond the Middle East, influencing global energy markets and economic stability worldwide. As the situation unfolds, the international community watches closely, wary of the potential for broader conflict in a region that holds significant geopolitical importance.
