American voters will go to the polls next month for a midterm election that will serve as an indirect verdict on Donald Trump’s second term, even though the president himself is not on the ballot. Democrats are seeking to regain control of Congress, while Republicans are mounting a defence of the White House agenda. Trump’s approval ratings are at their lowest across his two presidencies, with economic discontent and the unpopular war with Iran weighing heavily on public opinion. The result will be shaped not only by party loyalty, but by concerns about household finances, border policy, artificial intelligence and the integrity of the voting system.
Six issues now stand between the parties and the November election. Taken together, they present a difficult balancing act for candidates: backing Trump’s priorities risks alienating voters, while criticising aspects of his record can leave challengers open to charges of weakness or inconsistency.
Cost of living and the war with Iran
The economy remains the dominant concern for American voters, despite Trump’s 2024 promise to make affordability a central priority of his administration. A recent Associated Press-NORC survey found that just 26% of voters approved of his handling of the economy. That was two percentage points below Joe Biden’s worst rating on the same issue, underlining the scale of the political damage.
Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran has deepened those economic anxieties. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global energy supplies, pushing up petrol prices for motorists across the US. The conflict has therefore moved beyond foreign policy: for many voters, it is being felt directly at the pump and in household budgets.
It has also exposed a sharp contradiction between Trump’s campaign rhetoric and his conduct in office. Before returning to the White House, he pledged to end America’s supposed addiction to “forever wars”. The campaign against Tehran has instead given Democrats and some Republicans a new line of attack, with critics arguing that the president committed the country to an expansive military intervention.
Congressional authorisation is another point of contention. Democrats and a number of Republicans maintain that Trump launched the action without securing the approval required from Congress, potentially placing the White House at odds with the system of checks and balances that both parties invoke when politically convenient.
For the Republicans, the central challenge is to defend the operation without appearing indifferent to rising fuel costs. Democrats, in turn, must offer voters a credible economic alternative rather than relying on opposition to the war alone.
Immigration, presidential power and the case for oversight
Immigration enforcement and the closure of the southern border remain signature Trump issues. The president repeatedly points to his border policy as one of his greatest achievements, frequently drawing comparisons with the approach pursued by the Biden administration. Republican candidates across the country have echoed that message as they try to present the immigration debate as a decisive test of their party’s record in government.
The political mood has become more complicated. High-profile violent incidents involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers and Customs and Border Protection agents have reinforced a perception among some voters that the administration’s crackdown has “gone too far”. The argument is not necessarily that border enforcement has ceased; rather, it is that the methods and intensity of the policy have begun to overshadow the broader promise of controlling the border.
That shift creates room for candidates from either party to argue for a different balance. Some Republicans may seek to preserve the emphasis on enforcement while acknowledging public concerns about the tactics involved. Democrats can position themselves as advocates of firmer border controls, but must also show how their alternative would function in practice.
Trump’s own behaviour has made the election unusually personal. Although he is not seeking a vote, he has told voters to act as though he is on the ballot. His high visibility means that his character and exercise of presidential power have become central campaign questions, particularly as his approval ratings hover near their lowest point and political controversy surrounds allegations of corruption and his various building projects.
Democrats have consequently framed the midterms as an opportunity to rein in the White House. A shift in congressional control could mean closer scrutiny, more oversight hearings and greater difficulty for Trump to advance policies without negotiation or legal challenge. For Republicans, the incentive is straightforward: make the election a defence of the president’s record and portray Democratic ambitions for Congress
