The security situation in northeast Syria has become increasingly volatile, raising concerns that Islamic State (IS) militants could make a resurgence in the region. Following the withdrawal of Kurdish forces from the area, the Syrian security services have taken control of the al-Hawl camp, which was holding over 20,000 women previously associated with IS.
The US military has reported that it has transported around 150 IS fighters from a prison in Hassakeh province across the border to Iraq, and has stated it is willing to move up to 7,000 more to prevent a dangerous breakout. This comes after reports of at least 120 IS militants escaping from the Shaddadi prison on Monday, though 81 have since been recaptured.
The situation is further complicated by the changing of hands of prisons and camps holding former IS fighters and their families. The dramatic advance of Syrian government forces, which was halted by a fragile ceasefire on Tuesday, resulted in these facilities changing control in a chaotic fashion. This has led to concerns that experienced IS operatives may have been released into a contested security environment between Syrian government and Kurdish forces.
Humanitarian organisations have expressed alarm over the situation at the al-Hawl camp, stating that they have been unable to access the site since Sunday and are worried the situation could become more unstable. Reports suggest that at least some of the women and children detained there may have been able to leave after the Kurdish forces departed.
Nanar Hawach, a Syria expert and analyst with Crisis Group, warned that the danger is “not a reborn caliphate but a dispersed insurgency rebuilding in the cracks”. He cautioned that securing IS detention facilities, managing camps like al-Hawl, and suppressing sleeper cells across newly acquired territory requires resources, discipline, and institutional capacity that the Syrian government is still building.
The US has signalled that it has abandoned its support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), with the US special envoy for Syria, Tom Barrack, stating that the original purpose of the SDF as the primary anti-IS force on the ground has largely expired. Instead, Washington’s partner in holding down IS is now the Damascus government.
However, the situation remains highly uncertain, with the SDF leader, Mazloum Abdi, given four days from Tuesday to consult Kurdish leaders over accepting the Syrian government’s demands for close integration with Damascus. The fragile ceasefire could quickly break down, leading to further instability and the potential for an IS resurgence in the region.