As the UK braces for a shift in weather patterns, forecasters are predicting a colder spell to take hold in the coming weeks. A battle between cold air from the east and milder conditions from the west is set to play out, with the likelihood of the colder air winning out by next week.
While the details remain uncertain, some areas may see an increased chance of sleet and snow, though the transition between rain, sleet, and snow can be finely balanced. Before the colder conditions arrive, the country is expected to experience another round of wet and windy weather over the next few days.
Low pressure moving in from the south-west on Tuesday will bring heavy rain and strong winds, initially to the western half of the British Isles. By midweek, these wet and windy conditions will spread across the UK, with the Met Office issuing various weather warnings, including a yellow warning for wind in south-west England on Tuesday and a heavy rain warning in eastern Scotland from Wednesday through Friday.
As the week progresses, slightly colder weather is expected across northern areas on Thursday and into Friday, with some snow likely over high ground in Scotland, particularly in the Grampians and Highlands. For most areas, temperatures are set to stay around the January average for the rest of the week, before falling below average over the weekend and throughout the final week of January.
While several longer-range weather forecasting models are starting to agree that temperatures will drop more widely towards the end of the month, the change will not be clear-cut. With high pressure expected to the east and lower pressure to the west, the UK will lie just on the boundary between cold and mild air.
Forecasting snow in the UK can be a challenging task, as the country’s position on the edge of a large continent means our weather is often influenced by air masses from the relatively mild Atlantic. However, when winds originate from the Arctic or Siberia during the winter, we can see spells of cold, snowy weather. The difference between precipitation falling as rain, sleet, or snow can be dictated by just a degree or two, making it difficult for forecasters to firm up on any snow details until a few days in advance.
Readers are encouraged to keep an eye on the latest updates from the BBC Weather team on their website and mobile app for the most up-to-date information on the developing weather situation.