Ukraine’s president declared that critical American intelligence sharing on incoming Russian missile strikes is functioning again following high-stakes talks in Oslo with Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff — a diplomatic thaw that could reshape the trajectory of peace negotiations as the US emissary prepares to meet Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg on Wednesday.
The breakthrough came after weeks of escalating tension between Kyiv and Washington, during which Ukrainian officials accused the White House of deliberately withholding early-warning data and restricting access to the Starlink satellite network vital for battlefield communications. Those allegations, dismissed as “scandalous” by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, had exposed a fracture in the transatlantic alliance that European leaders warned was undermining collective security.
A fragile reset in Oslo
Tuesday’s meeting in the Norwegian capital brought together an unusual constellation of power brokers. Alongside Witkoff and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sat Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, and — via video link — Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and another key diplomatic channel to Moscow. Witkoff himself was absent from the joint press conference that followed, a notable omission that underscored the sensitivity of his upcoming Kremlin encounter.
Zelensky struck a visibly relieved tone. “Speaking about early warning, which is very important for our people, our children, adults, civilians because we can hear when ballistics are coming — so we are thankful to American side, now it works, it’s great,” he told reporters. The restoration of real-time missile alerts, he implied, had immediate life-or-death consequences for a population enduring near-daily aerial bombardment.
The Ukrainian leader also signalled hope that speed restrictions imposed on SpaceX’s Starlink system — which Kyiv’s military relies on for drone operations against Russian targets — would soon be lifted. A bipartisan group of US senators had demanded an urgent investigation into those restrictions just days earlier.
Europe insists on a seat at the table
Stubb described “genuine progress” on peace proposals but offered no specifics, cautioning that patience would be required. Støre was more pointed: Europe, he insisted, “needs to be at the table” during any discussions on ending a war that has redrawn the continent’s security architecture. The sentiment reflects deepening anxiety in European capitals that a bilateral US-Russia deal could be struck over Ukrainian and European heads.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, speaking to Bloomberg TV on Monday, lamented “mixed pictures and messages” from Washington and said he was working to convince the American government “in total that this is something we have to resolve jointly.” The remarks highlighted a growing European conviction that the continent must shoulder more of the burden — financial and military — regardless of US political volatility.
Washington’s mixed signals
The Oslo optimism sits uneasily alongside contradictory rhetoric from the Trump administration. The president himself has repeatedly suggested Ukraine needs new leadership, most recently declaring it was time “for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine.” He has also blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure for rising US fuel prices — a narrative that conveniently sidesteps the impact of his own administration’s escalating confrontation with Iran.
Vice-President JD Vance offered a strikingly transactional assessment on Monday. Kyiv, he said, was “certainly a partner in some ways, but we have some divergent interests from time to time, like for example… I think they should stop bombing Russian energy.” He added: “We don’t have a formal alliance as far as I know with Ukraine. They’re not in Nato, I don’t think they should be in Nato… we’re gonna work together on some things, but also we’re going to be opposite on some things too.”
Such candour has unsettled allies who viewed the US commitment as less conditional.
The Kremlin’s calculus
For all the diplomatic activity, Moscow’s position remains opaque. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Kremlin would listen to what Witkoff “would offer” but ruled out “any political concessions” — a formulation that suggests Russia expects territorial gains to be recognised without reciprocal compromises. Putin has not publicly commented on the Oslo discussions.
A US official characterised Tuesday’s talks as “very productive and constructive,” citing “strong alignment at the working level” among the US, Ukraine and Europe on “the next steps.” Witkoff’s St Petersburg meeting will test whether that alignment survives contact with Russian demands.
Meanwhile, the war grinds on. Russian drone strikes on Tuesday killed at least ten civilians — four in Kyiv and the surrounding region, four in eastern Donetsk, and two in Dnipro. Moscow controls roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory, a figure unchanged since the invasion’s early months despite staggering human and material cost.
Why it Matters
The Oslo meeting represents more than a technical restoration of intelligence feeds; it signals a potential recalibration of the Trump administration’s approach to a conflict that has become a litmus test for US reliability. If Witkoff returns from St Petersburg with a Russian response that preserves Ukrainian sovereignty while offering Putin a face-saving exit, the diplomatic architecture built in Norway could form the skeleton of a durable settlement. But if the Kremlin treats the outreach as weakness — or if Washington’s European partners conclude they cannot trust American commitments — the result may be a fragmented alliance and a prolonged war fought on terms Moscow dictates. The coming days will reveal whether Tuesday’s “genuine progress” was a diplomatic mirage or the first substantive step toward ending Europe’s bloodiest conflict since 1945.
