A recent Ipsos poll, commissioned by Global News, has unveiled a significant decrease in support for Alberta’s separatist movement. Conducted from May 28 to June 1, the survey indicates that only 19 per cent of Albertans are now in favour of holding a binding referendum on independence this autumn. In contrast, a substantial 72 per cent of respondents prefer to remain a part of Canada, while the remaining participants are either undecided or did not respond.
Falling Support for Separation
The latest data suggests that the momentum for a separatist referendum is faltering, with support dropping from 28 per cent in January to just 18 per cent in the current poll. This decline comes as Alberta Premier Danielle Smith adds a question on separatism to the upcoming referendum, which is set for October. The new query will ask voters whether Alberta should remain a province of Canada or initiate the constitutional process for a binding referendum on separation.
Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada, noted that as the prospect of an actual vote becomes more tangible, enthusiasm for separation appears to be diminishing. “It seems like the more that people contemplate this being real — the act of voting — we see the support for separatism softening,” he stated in an interview with Global News.
Stronger Commitment to Staying in Canada
The Ipsos polling results reveal a distinct difference in commitment levels between those who wish to remain in Canada and those who support separation. A striking 90 per cent of respondents who favour staying described their position as “definite,” whereas only 70 per cent of separatist supporters expressed similar certainty. “What it shows is that people who really want Alberta to stay in Canada are really strongly motivated to vote for that,” Bricker explained. The small base of separatist support would need to mobilise significantly more voters to be competitive in the upcoming referendum.
The separatist group, Stay Free Alberta, claims to have gathered over 300,000 signatures for their petition seeking a referendum, which, if validated, would represent around six per cent of Alberta’s population of five million. However, the process to verify these signatures is currently stalled due to a recent court ruling that quashed the petition—a decision the Alberta government plans to appeal.
Regional Variations in Support
Support for both the referendum and the notion of separation is notably lower in Calgary, where only 14 per cent of respondents support proceeding with a referendum, compared to 18 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in other parts of Alberta. Similarly, just 12 per cent of Calgary participants would vote for separation, while the numbers rise slightly in Edmonton (16 per cent) and outside the city (27 per cent).
Political affiliation also plays a significant role in shaping opinions. Among supporters of the United Conservative Party (UCP), 50 per cent favour remaining in Canada, while 40 per cent support a referendum and 41 per cent would vote for separation. This division in opinion reflects the broader sentiments within the UCP, with Bricker noting that there exists significant support for both staying in Canada and pursuing separation.
A National Perspective
Outside Alberta, the desire for provincial separation remains low, with only 11 per cent of Canadians across the country indicating support for their own province to separate if given the chance. Interestingly, support is highest in Quebec, where 30 per cent of respondents expressed support for separation. Nevertheless, a majority of 80 per cent of Canadians believe Alberta should remain a part of Canada, including 63 per cent of Quebecers.
Moreover, 58 per cent of Canadians feel that the entire nation should have a voice in Alberta’s potential separation, while only 28 per cent believe the decision should rest solely with Albertans. This sentiment mirrors the historical context of Quebec’s own separatist sentiments, with Bricker drawing parallels to the 1995 referendum, suggesting many Canadians view Alberta as an integral part of the country.
Why it Matters
The evolving landscape of separatist sentiment in Alberta is not merely a local issue; it reflects broader national sentiments regarding unity and identity within Canada. As Alberta approaches a referendum, the declining support for separation indicates a crucial moment for both the province and the nation. The implications of these polling results are significant, as they not only shape the political narrative in Alberta but also influence national conversations about the future of Canada itself. With many Canadians preferring unity over division, the referendum could serve as a pivotal point in reaffirming the bonds that hold the country together.
