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Recent polling data indicates a notable decline in support for Alberta’s potential separation from Canada, according to an Ipsos survey commissioned by Global News. Conducted from May 28 to June 1, the poll reveals that only 19 per cent of Albertans currently support a binding referendum on independence, a significant decrease from earlier this year.
A Shift in Sentiment
The Ipsos poll found that 72 per cent of Albertans are now inclined to remain within Canada, with the remainder either undecided or choosing not to respond. This marks a substantial drop in separatist sentiment, as support for independence fell from 28 per cent in January to 18 per cent today. As the political landscape evolves, the focus turns to the upcoming referendum scheduled for October, where these sentiments will be tested.
Darrell Bricker, chairman of Ipsos Canada, noted that as discussions around a referendum become more concrete, support for separation appears to be diminishing. “It seems like the more that people contemplate this being real—the act of voting—the support for separatism softens,” he stated during an interview with Global News.
The Political Landscape
Support for remaining in Canada is particularly robust, with 90 per cent of those against separation describing their choice as “definite,” compared to 70 per cent of separatists who feel similarly. Bricker highlighted that the commitment to staying in Canada is markedly stronger among voters, indicating a significant challenge for separatist supporters.
The “Stay Free Alberta” group, which has been actively campaigning for independence, claims it has gathered over 300,000 signatures for a petition demanding a referendum. However, this petition is currently paused due to a court ruling that quashed it, a decision the Alberta government intends to appeal. In light of this, Premier Danielle Smith has incorporated a question on separation into the existing referendum framework, which will also address immigration and constitutional issues. The new question will ask voters whether Alberta should initiate the legal process to hold a binding referendum on independence.
Regional Variations in Support
Support for holding a referendum and for separation itself varies across Alberta’s urban landscape. In Calgary, only 14 per cent are in favour of moving ahead with a referendum, compared to 18 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in the surrounding regions. Similarly, the inclination to separate is lower in Calgary, with just 12 per cent supporting independence, versus 16 per cent in Edmonton and 27 per cent in other areas of the province.
Political affiliations also play a crucial role in shaping opinions. Among supporters of the United Conservative Party (UCP), 50 per cent wish to remain in Canada, while 40 per cent support a referendum and 41 per cent would vote for separation. In contrast, a staggering 92 per cent of NDP supporters advocate for staying in Canada.
The Broader National Perspective
While support for Alberta’s secession remains low across Canada, opinions differ by region. Outside Alberta, only 11 per cent of Canadians expressed a desire for their provinces to seek independence if a referendum were held today. In Quebec, support for separation stands at 30 per cent, while it is minimal in provinces like British Columbia and Ontario, hovering around two to three per cent. Notably, 80 per cent of Canadians believe Alberta should remain part of Canada, including 63 per cent in Quebec.
Interestingly, many Canadians feel that the entire nation should have a say in Alberta’s potential separation. A majority—58 per cent—believe the decision should not rest solely with Albertans, reflecting a national sentiment that Alberta’s status affects the country as a whole. In Quebec, opinions are split, with 51 per cent favouring a decision made by Albertans.
Why it Matters
The declining support for Alberta’s separation raises critical questions about the province’s political future and its relationship with the rest of Canada. As the referendum date approaches, these shifting sentiments could significantly influence not just local governance but also national unity. Understanding the dynamics at play in Alberta is essential for grasping the broader implications this debate holds for federalism in Canada, especially as citizens weigh the costs and benefits of independence against the backdrop of a changing political landscape.
