In a strategic bid to capitalise on recent Liberal policy rollbacks, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is optimistic about the party’s prospects in the upcoming North Vancouver-Capilano by-election, scheduled for August 31. The Greens are fielding Shelley Luce, an environmental scientist and former adviser to the City of North Vancouver, in a riding where they have historically struggled to secure significant support.
A Shift in Political Dynamics
The North Vancouver-Capilano riding has not traditionally favoured the Greens, with their best performances resulting in third-place finishes during the 2008 and 2015 elections. In the 2019 contest, they garnered only 12 per cent of the vote, which still resulted in a fourth-place outcome. However, May believes that the current political landscape presents a unique opportunity for the Greens, particularly as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government pushes forward with controversial major projects that have raised environmental concerns.
May highlighted the recent approval of dredging in Vancouver’s Burrard Inlet, a project designed to accommodate larger oil tankers loading from the Trans Mountain pipeline. “There are numerous factors working in our favour, including projects being rapidly advanced that directly impact the shores of North Vancouver,” she stated. The implications of this project have alarmed environmental groups, who are vocal about its potential threats to local marine wildlife.
The Contest Ahead
Carney recently called for three by-elections, including North Vancouver-Capilano, following the departure of former natural resources minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who has taken up the role of Canada’s ambassador to the European Union. The Liberal Party has selected Braeden Caley, Carney’s former deputy chief of staff, to contest the seat. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are re-nominating lawyer Stephen Curran, who secured second place against Wilkinson last year with a third of the votes cast.
May remains cautious but hopeful regarding the Greens’ chances. “It’s not guaranteed that the Greens will win, but we have a strong candidate in Shelly Luce,” she remarked. “By-elections offer voters a low-risk way to try out a new MP. If they are dissatisfied with Luce’s performance, they can reassess in three years when the general election arrives.”
Skepticism Among Experts
While May’s enthusiasm is commendable, some analysts express doubt about the Greens’ ability to secure the seat. Poll expert Éric Grenier from The Writ commented, “To win the seat? No. While there’s a possibility for a decent result, especially given their previous performances in the area, the current political environment makes it unlikely for the Greens to succeed.”
Grenier acknowledged that the Greens surprised many earlier this month when provincial candidate Tayte Willows defeated P.E.I. Liberal Leader Robert Mitchell in a by-election. Nonetheless, he cautioned against overestimating their federal prospects, noting that the party currently enjoys only about five per cent support in British Columbia. “Winning a riding with 100,000 voters is a different ball game than securing a few thousand in a smaller district,” he explained.
The Broader Context
As the Green Party intensifies its focus on the upcoming by-elections, it is simultaneously grappling with its own leadership race, with nominations closing on July 17. The results of this contest, with a full list of candidates to be revealed shortly, could further shape the party’s strategic direction.
Why it Matters
The North Vancouver-Capilano by-election is more than just a contest for a single seat; it serves as a barometer for the Green Party’s resilience and electoral viability in a shifting political landscape. With escalating concerns over climate policy and environmental degradation, the Greens’ performance in this riding could influence public perception and support for their platform nationwide. Success here might not only bolster their numbers but also signal a growing appetite for sustainable governance among voters disillusioned by traditional parties.
