As the political landscape shifts, Makerfield is poised to become a crucial battleground in the upcoming by-election, a contest that could have ramifications for the Labour Party and potentially shape the future of leadership within its ranks. With around 76,000 constituents in a traditionally Labour stronghold, the stakes have never been higher as Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham prepares to step into the fray following the resignation of current MP Josh Simons.
A Safe Labour Seat Faces Unprecedented Challenge
Historically, Makerfield has been a bastion of Labour support since its inception in 1983. However, recent local council elections have seen Reform UK gaining ground, prompting questions about Labour’s dominance in the area. The rising popularity of Reform UK, particularly under the leadership of Nigel Farage, has intensified scrutiny on Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, with calls from within the party urging him to consider his position.
Despite internal pressures, Starmer remains defiant, refusing to establish a timeline for his potential departure. Yet the dynamics have shifted with Burnham’s entry into the race, creating a scenario where his success or failure could significantly impact Labour’s leadership future.
Burnham’s Ambitions and the Road Ahead
Andy Burnham is no stranger to political battles, having previously served as MP for Leigh before becoming the Mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017. His political pedigree is solid, but the road to victory in Makerfield won’t be easy. Voter sentiment appears mixed, with some expressing confidence in Burnham’s capabilities while others voice skepticism regarding Labour’s broader effectiveness.
Penelope Nelson, a local nursery worker and Burnham supporter, believes he understands the needs of the community. However, she acknowledges the challenge ahead: “He knows what the people want… but I think he’ll have a fight on his hands.” Meanwhile, retired resident Stan Crook points to a growing disillusionment with Labour, stating, “Nobody’s got any faith in Keir Starmer… he’s not done enough.”
Burnham has been vocal about his aspirations for higher office, but a defeat in this by-election would not only damage his reputation but could also stifle any immediate leadership ambitions within Labour.
Reform UK’s Rising Influence
The recent local elections have seen Reform UK surge, capturing 50% of the vote share in Makerfield, compared to Labour’s 27%. This shift has raised alarms within Labour, as the party grapples with maintaining its historic foothold. Richard Tice, deputy leader of Reform UK, has proclaimed their intention to “make Burnham history,” signalling a determined campaign ahead.
In the 2024 general election, Simons secured the seat with 45.2% of the vote, but with Reform UK now targeting Makerfield as their 29th priority, they require a swing of just over 6.7% to claim victory. Many locals, like Helen Raymond, have expressed surprise at Reform’s strong performance but remain cautiously optimistic about Labour’s chances under Burnham’s leadership.
The Path to Candidacy
Before Burnham can officially run, he must secure approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) and the local party. Despite previous hurdles, there are indications that Starmer will not oppose Burnham’s candidacy this time around. Should he win, it could ignite a leadership contest within the party, potentially leading to a new face at Number 10 by autumn.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice has suggested that Labour’s chances in Makerfield would be “less than 5%” with any candidate other than Burnham. His victory would demonstrate an ability to reclaim ground for Labour in a time of uncertainty, making this by-election a pivotal moment for the party.
Why it Matters
The outcome of the Makerfield by-election will reverberate far beyond its borders. A victory for Burnham could signal a resurgence for Labour, instilling fresh confidence in a party struggling with internal strife and external competition. Conversely, a loss could solidify Reform UK’s position as a formidable force and further destabilise Labour’s leadership under Sir Keir Starmer. With the political stakes at an all-time high, all eyes will be on Makerfield as this remarkable contest unfolds.
